Great Expectations for the State of the Union

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 25, 2011
All Rights Reserved.                                

              Riding his best approval ratings into the State of the Union Speech in over a year, President Barack Obama has figured out what works and what doesn’t, after taking a beating Nov. 2 in the Midterm elections.  Since his “shellacking,” the president pivoted away from the bitter partisanship that defined his first two years. With former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) taking backseat rolls, Obama has found his own identity, the one that won his presidency as a keynote speaker at the 2004 Democratic National Convention at FleetCenter in Boston.  Boston hit broad themes of patriotic bipartisanship, practically guaranteeing frontrunner status when he ran for president in 2008.  When hard-charging partisan Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), a former Clinton advisor, became his chief of staff, it spelled trouble for Barack’s first two years.

            At all costs to Barack’s approval ratings, Pelosi, Reid and Rahn steamrolled for national health care, ignoring the polls, clearly showing voters more worried about the stumbling economy.  Allowing the three musketeers to dictate his legislative agenda, Barack betrayed his campaign promise of more bipartisanship.  When he took his beating Nov. 2, he hit the reset button, allowing him to rediscover his deep bipartisan roots.  Since the midterm election, Barack saw the wisdom of extending the Bush-era tax cuts, proving he could work across the aisle.  With Rahm resigning his post to run for Chicago mayor and Pelosi and Reid playing less high profile roles, Barack could forge a new bipartisan consensus, using his oratorical skills to bring it about.  When disaster struck in Tucson Nov. 8, Barack provided the national leadership and relief to a nation rocked by gun violence and bitter politics. 

            Tonight’s State of the Union promises to avoid technical details and stick to the lofty bipartisan goals of reawakening the American industrial giant.  For too many years, the world has heard only about China, who’s Gross Domestic Product is still one-third that of the U.S.  Obama’s message seeks to restore hope in the U.S. economy that’s attempting a stunning rebound from the dog-days of 2008 where the stock and real estate markets tanked, prompting the financial collapse that left banks without cash.  With help from Federal Reserve Board and Treasuring Secretary Tim Geithner, Barack signed financial reform into law July 22, 2010, attempting to correct the glitches that brought the economy down.  With the economy on the mend together with his approval ratings, Barack will hit the same high notes and themes that have pushed his approval ratings to over 50%.

            Hosting Chinese President Hu Jintao last week, Barack hoped to continue the cooperative dialogue giving more hope to the U.S. economy.  While he couldn’t convince Hu to raise the Yuan’s value, he could chart a course for the U.S. economy that strongly encourages foreign companies to manufacture in the U.S.  With the car industry leading the way, Barack must insist that big ticket foreign exporters, like flat-screen TV-makers, must manufacturer by a date-certain in the U.S. or face punitive tariffs.  While no one wants at trade war, exporteing nations can’t succeed in the U.S. market if unemployment remains too high.  Barack’s speech aims to stimulate the jobs market by showing realistic strategies to jumpstart U.S. jobs.  Carmakers learned the hard way that building popular import cars in the U.S. opens up new jobs and actually increases sales by putting more cash into consumers’ pockets.

            Tonight’s State of the Union hopes to hit high bipartisan notes, finding the emotional common denominator to win applause on both sides of the aisle.  “He’ll be much more inclined, after Tucson, to go thematic,” said American Enterprise Institute political scientist Norman Ornstein.  Steering away from health care, Barack should make the full pivot to the economy and jobs.  He has to show he’s single-minded, focused and committed to expanding U.S. jobs.  His meeting with Hu left supporters skeptical that the president can do anything concrete to wrestle jobs back to the U.S.  “In this environment, jobs dominate everything,” said Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg, who worked hard in 1992 with fellow strategist James Carville to elect President Bill Clinton.  Given today’s fragile economy, Barack will have to demonstrate unqualified commitment to creating jobs.

            Barack’s speech promises to showcase his oratorical skills, sending a loud message to would-be suitors that he’s back in full force.  Tucson showed more of Barack’s magnetism than any speech since the inauguration.  His Jan. 20 speech, commemorating the 50th anniversary of President John F. Kennedy’s inauguration reached out to crossover Republicans and independents, two groups he’s alienated over the last two years.  No longer limited by inexperience and bound by Pelosi, Reid and Emanuel, tonight’s State of the Union is a coming out party for Obama, recommitting himself to bipartisanship.  In addition to hitting the economy, Barack promises to announce the ends to the Afghan and Iraq wars, ending the most politically divisive chapter in recent U.S. history.  Finding common ground should help pave the way for his bruising reelection battle to come.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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