Obama Stands Down Iran in Persian Gulf

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 22, 2012

All Rights Reserved.                                         

   Responding to Iranian threats to close the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz, President Barack Obama called Iran’s bluff, ordering the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln back to the Persian Gulf.  If the U.S. and European Union go ahead with economic sanctions on Iran’s lucrative oil industry, Iran threatens to take military action against U.S. warships in the Gulf.  Passing through the Strait of Hormuz “as previously scheduled and without incident,” U.S. 5th Fleet spokeswoman Lt.  Rebecca Rebarich said the U.S. would continue its normal routine in the Gulf.  Iran’s army chief Ataollah Salehi told the U.S. they go at their own risk, returning warships to the Gulf.  “I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf.  We are not in the habit of warning more than once,” warned Salehi last week, prompting Obama to return the carrier task force to the Gulf.

             U.S. and EU officials have adopted tough new economic sanctions making it difficult for Iran to sell its oil on world markets.  Unwilling to suspend uranium enrichment activities prompted the West to take a tough stance on Iran’s nuclear program.  If Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad didn’t threaten to wipe “Israel off the map” and host Holocaust denial conferences, the West wouldn’t crack down so much on Iran’s nuclear program.  Iran’s decision to back down after prior threats indicates that the mullah’s have finally blinked.  They know that any attack on a U.S. carrier group would be an act of war.  Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Hossein Salami told Iran’s IRNA state news agency that any U.S. return to the Gulf was entirely prudent and accidental, a dramatic change from only a week ago when Iran sounded more warlike.

             Iran’s decision to back down from the gunboat diplomacy signals a victory for Obama’s approach to defense strategy.  “U.S. warships and military forces have been in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East region for many years and their decision in relation to the dispatch of a new warship is not a new issue and it should be interpreted as part of their permanent presence,” said Salami, signaling Iran’s pivot.  With tough new sanctions due to impact Iran’s oil sales, Tehran will have to make some hard choices, including whether enriching uranium is more important than selling petroleum.  Few U.N. nations, including Russia and China, wish to see Iran build its first A-bomb.  While no one knows for sure the timetable, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have made it clear they consider Iran a nuclear power, insisting its program is only for peaceful power-generating purposes.

             U.S. and EU officials haven’t figured out how to get Iran to stop enriching uranium or to allow the Vienna-based U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to get open inspections of its nuclear sites.  Iran considers its nuclear program within its rights under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, allowing countries to develop peaceful uses of nuclear power.  Western powers, especially Israel, fear that Iran seeks to weaponize uranium and build A-bombs, though the timetable or technical know-how remains murky.   Having pulled out of Iraq last month, Obama risked a confrontation sending the carrier task force back to the Gulf.  Getting Iran to back down shows Barack’s critics that the man who got Bin Laden last May has no intention of backing down with Iran.  It’s tougher now for the GOP to sell the president as weak on defense.

             If the U.S. and EU move on an oil embargo and to freeze Iran’s Central Bank assets, it could push Iran to lash out.  Sending the carrier group back to the Persian Gulf sends the ayatollah a message that threats against the U.S. come with a draconic price.  Unconfirmed reports suggest that the White House has opened up an unofficial dialogue with Iranian authorities.  White House spokesman Jay Carney would neither confirm nor deny that Obama sent a letter to Tehran.  Iran recently asked to restart nuclear talks with the West, something they’ve used in the past as a stalling tactic.  “If the Iranians are serious about restarting talks, then they need to respond to that letter,” said Carney, referring to the P5 + 1 letter asking Iran to allow the IAEA to renew nuclear inspections.  Iran backed down in the Gulf precisely because Western powers showed unshakable resolve.

             Heading more deeply into the GOP primaries, voters see White House progress on many fronts.  Calling Obama weak on defense no longer resonates with the facts, especially Iran’s recent decision to back down from threats against U.S. aircraft carriers.  With the Dow Jones Industrial Average approaching 13,000, it’s an equally difficult sell telling voters that the economy is getting worse under Obama.  If U.S. and EU sanctions force the ayatollah back to the bargaining table on its nuclear program, it’s going to give Obama yet another foreign policy victory.  More U.S. and EU resolve should force Tehran to back down on its nuclear program.  Embargoing Iranian oil or freezing assets applies more pressure on Iran’s already shaky economy.  If Iran goes back to the table, Obama will no doubt get the credit.  Republicans at some point will have to give the president his due.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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