by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 19, 2004
All Rights Reserved.

nocking former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean off his perch, Sens. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) and John Edwards (N. Car.) recorded stunning victories in the Iowa Caucuses, robbing Dean of precious momentum heading into New Hampshire's Jan. 27 primary. In what was billed as a dead heat, Dean's collapse in the final days caps a series of blunders leading Iowa Democrats to conclude Dean was not electable. While it's tempting to ignore the Iowa results, Dean's jackrabbit campaign is in trouble. Going from front-runner to third place, he has reason for concern, despite proclaiming he didn't expect to win the Hawkeye state. In reality, a series of amateurish mistakes—including rudely arguing with an Iowan at a town hall meeting—left voters skeptical of Dean's presidential credentials. When Dean denied that the country was safer after capturing Saddam, his credibility headed south.

      Speaking more like a professional wrestler than presidential candidate, Dean rolled up his sleeves and told supporters during his concession speech that he intended to fight on to New Hampshire. But the sheer size of his loss lands a punishing blow to his one-dimensional campaign, largely attacking Bush on Iraq. As voters struggle to make ends meet, Iraq takes a backseat to jobs, health care and the economy. Ranting about the war galvanized interest in the campaign but didn't move voters in Iowa, placing jobs, health care and the economy at the top. “We're still alive,” said Dean, bummed about polling only 18%, but promising to keep fighting. Dean's bitter tone turned off genteel Iowans, unimpressed with his barbs thrown at fellow Democrats. When the dust settles, Dean finds himself wounded, limping back to New Hampshire without much time to rehabilitate.

      Left for dead only a few weeks ago, Kerry's campaign heads to New Hampshire with new momentum. Considered a stick-in-the-mud, Kerry learned from Dean that he must show passion on the stump, not his trademark New England reserve. “As I've said in New Hampshire and here, I'm a fighter,” said Kerry, pumping his fist at a victory rally. Before Kerry goes over the deep end, he needs to acknowledge Dean's self-destructive behavior, turning Iowans in his direction. Dean's intemperate outbursts and string of gaffes left voters no other choice than Kerry and Edwards, whose “positive” message hasn't been battle-tested against fellow Democrats or Bush. Edwards, like Kerry, allowed his second-place finish get to his head. “This campaign, this cause, this movement is about bringing real change to America,” said the junior senator from North Carolina, going overboard with his supporters.

      Dean's stunning collapse gives Kerry and Edwards the illusion that they've somehow surged in actual popularity. Turning away from Dean, Iowans scrambled to dish votes to remaining viable candidates. Edwards' claim to a “cause” and legitimate mass “movement” stems from election-night euphoria—not reality. For all his youth, vigor and ability to connect to voters, Edwards lacks the killer instincts needed to upend a popular incumbent. Kerry's new hot-blooded makeover can only work if President Bush's approval ratings unravel. If Dean's collapse continues in New Hampshire, Democrats will be faced with the unseemly reality that neither Kerry nor Edwards match up well against Bush. Aside from embarrassing gaffes on the stump, Dean made the mistake of running too soon against Bush, rather than containing his exuberance and competing against his Democratic rivals.

      Lurking in the background, former NATO Supreme Commander, four-star general Wesley Clark presents problems for both Kerry and Edwards. Without voters pulling the plug on Dean, they will have to contend with Clark's rising popularity, presenting a real challenge to Kerry and Edwards. With former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-Mo.) dropping out and Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) on wobbly legs, no candidate expects to gain much advantage heading into New Hampshire. “We're now on to New Hampshire, and New Hampshire is a whole new ballgame,” said Lieberman hoping that Dean's collapse gives his flagging campaign a boost. Like Iowans, New Hampshire's voters will try to pick the most electable candidate, leaving Lieberman without much hope. If Dean continues to unravel, remaining candidates will have a big problem defining themselves—especially against President Bush.

      Dean's stunning collapse changes the dynamics of the race by creating a bevy of generic Democratic candidates, incapable of carrying a coherent message. Only Dean offered the kind of insurgent, outsider message that galvanized disenfranchised voters, especially political neophytes from Generation-X. Former U.S. senators haven't faired well in presidential contests, precisely because they're viewed as establishment candidates and political insiders. “I want to thank Iowa for making me the ‘comeback Kerry,'” said Kerry, borrowing a line from Clinton's 1992 campaign, but failing to admit Dean's failure had more to do with his success. If present trends continue, Kerry, Edwards and Clark will have to find a new whipping boy, giving Dean the chance to play underdog and reinvent himself where it counts—on the second super-Tuesday, March 3. Until then, they can all enjoy the euphoria.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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