Massachusetts' Obama Factor

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Jan..16, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                    

              From the land of the Boston Tea Party, the tealeaves don’t look good for Democrats hoping to hold on to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy’s senate seat. State Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley finds herself in a dogfight with little-known state Sen. Scott Brown but not for the obvious reasons.  “They should have been prepared for this," said Democratic media consultant Michael Shea, blaming the close race on Coakley’s complacency.  “You don’t let someone creep up on you like he has,” unable to see the bigger picture.  Coakley has the Massachusetts’ Democratic machine behind her but she doesn’t have Teddy’s charisma or the Kennedy mystique.  Shea also overlooks that there’s growing frustration, especially among independents and crossover Republicans, with the country’s direction.  Putting all their eggs in one basket, the White House and Congressional Democrats have gambled on national health care.

            Brown’s surge in the polls speaks less about him than a growing anti-incumbent mood, strongly tied to disappointment over President Barack Obama.  While all agree that the president is a brilliant orator, voters in Massachusetts mirror the national mood that reflects disappointment over Barack’s performance.  Improvements in the economy, especially job creation, have been too slow to allay the public’s anxieties beginning to cast doubt on the Obama agenda.  Republicans faced a tall mountain to climb in 2008, with former President George W. Bush handing voters two unpopular wars and a stubborn recession.  Voters, especially independents and crossover Republicans, gave Obama the benefit of the doubt on Election Day, hoping for dramatic changes.  One year into his presidency, the nation still reels from a stubborn recession, with hope and optimism dwindling.

            Coakley has been successfully tied by Brown to the status quo, not especially appealing to Massachusetts’ voters struggling with high levels of unemployment.  U.S. Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Finance Committee, cast the election in terms of the fate of Obama’s health care reform.  A vote for Brown, Frank insists, is a vote against health care reform, since Brown gives the GOP the needed votes to filibuster Obama’s plan.  Without knowing it, Frank energized Massachusetts’ voters opposed to Barack’s health care plan to defeat Coakley.  For whatever reason, Obama’s health care plan lacks the nationwide approval, despite Democrats pushing for its passage.  With polls tightening, Obama plans to campaign for Coakley Sunday, Jan. 17, only two days before Election Day.  Judging by the tight race, it’s clear that independents will determine the election.

              Democratic strategists hope that Obama’s presence turns out the base on Election Day.  What they’re miscalculating is the extent of disappointment and frustration with the president.  Many voters feel Obama has placed too much emphasis on health care and not enough creating jobs.  He’s tried, but failed, to convince voters that reforming health care somehow helps colossal budget deficits and overall economy.  No one, on either side of the debate, can figure out how Obama reduces the deficit by insuring up to 30 million Americans.  Whether or not Coakley fills Kennedy’s shoes doesn’t answer the question of how to fix the economy.  When December’s unemployment report showed another 85,000 lost jobs, it helped Brown and hurt Coakley.  Any bad news about the incumbent’s party hurts candidate’s chances of capturing independents and crossovers.

            Advertising Brown as the 41st vote against Obama’s health care plan was a good selling point for disenfranchised independents and crossovers.  With national polls showing that 60% of voters oppose Barack’s health care plan, Brown picks up those voters seeking a single issue.  When Massachusetts’ voters go to the polls Jan. 19, they’ll mirror the mood of the country frustrated with the longest recession since the Great Depression.  Recent vulnerabilities in airport security leave voters questioning Obama’s national security credentials, rightfully or not.  More bad news on the economy or national security hurts the incumbent by making the case that the country needs more balance in Washington.  With House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) taking over the health care debate, Obama looks like a political pawn.

            Bad economic news and unfavorable national polls on the president’s health care reform plan has hurt Martha Coakley heading into Tuesday’s special election.  Whether she can squeak out a close victory is anyone’s guess.  Running as a Democrats in Massachusetts should be a no-brainer.  Coakley’s lack of charisma or discomfort in front of the cameras also hasn’t helped her chances on Tuesday.  Brown’s lead in the polls speaks volumes about voters’ frustrations nearly a year into Obama’s presidency.  Barack has more difficulty blaming the economy or national security problems on former President Bush and must reassess his priorities or face bad news next November.  Democrats opted to roll the dice with health care.  If Coakley loses next Tuesday, it spells doom not only for Barack’s health care plan but for the rest of his legislative agenda until he runs for reelection in 2012.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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