by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 15, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

hrowing a possible monkey wrench into GOP plans in '08, billionaire Republican New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg may play this year's H. Ross Perot, the Texas billionaire that upended George H.W. Bush's plans for a second term in 1992. While a young charismatic Arkansas governor named Bill Clinton won the office by five percent, Perot captured a whopping 18%, siphoning off votes from Bush-41. Clinton's margin of victory over Bush was 43% to 38%. History forgets the Perot-effect, launching Clinton into office. History repeated itself in 1996, when Clinton beat Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.) 49.2% to 40.7% with Perot helping Clinton's cause taking 8.4%. Should Bloomberg make a third party run, it would practically guarantee the White House to the Democratic Party. Bloomberg's supporters launched a 50-state petition to get him on the '08 ballot.

      Bloomberg, like Perot, is a billionaire industrialist, the head of a business-media empire spanning the globe. Perot campaigned in 1992 to save the economy from a stubborn recession that torpedoed Bush-41's reelection. While there are key differences today, the economy remains on shaky ground, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stands at around 12,500 shedding more than 10% since its peek Oct. 1, 2007 at 14,111 and only 750 points more than it peak of 11,750 Jan. 14, 2000. Since then, the Dow has only gained about 6.4% or .8% per year. During the same period, the tech-rich Nasdaq peaked at 5,048 March 10, 2000 and now stands at 2,442, less than 50% of its top value. “California, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin; they're in recession, [And] they account for 25-30% of the nation's GDP,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.

      When the election years started in '07, the Iraq War dominated the discussion, causing fits for GOP candidates, whose support of Bush's policy cost them in public opinion. When U.S. death rates precipitously dropped in Dec. '07 to 23, the war ceased to be the nation's most pressing election-year issue. Fixing the economy threatens all GOP candidates, especially because Bush's economic plan—featuring his across the board tax cuts in 2002—has apparently failed due to massive defense spending on Iraq. No economy can absorb the whopping $12 billion a month price tag, financing the reconstruction of Iraq. “We can't wait for the next president to act. We need that middle-class tax cut now . . . not five months form now or five weeks from now,” said Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.), concerned about the economy plunging into recession.

      A poor economy hurts all GOP candidates in the general election. It's difficult arguing good stewardship when Republican economic policies left the country in poor shape. White House reassurance falls on deaf years as voters watch the stock market meltdown and the Federal Reserve Board perform urgent resuscitation to stave off serious recession. A failing economy helps Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and hurts Obama because, no matter how much charisma, he lacks the economic experience needed to manage a failing economy. While they like Obama's message, they won't trust him to turn around the economy. Hillary, on the other hand, was part of her husband's economic boom that lasted until the stock market tanked in spring 2000, only eight months before Bush took office. No matter what the issue in campaign ‘08, there's going to be winners and losers.

      If the economy continues to tank, Bloomberg could be pushed to into a third-party bid. “It's very flattering but I am not a candidate for president of the United States. I've go a job which I think is a phenomenal job,” said Bloomberg, denying rumors about a possible third-party run. “It's the economy, stupid, and I would put my chips on Michael Bloomberg with his experience and ideas,” said Gerald Rashoon, a former spokesman for President Jimmy Carter, now involved in a draft-Bloomberg campaign. Like 1992, Bloomberg could be seen as this year's savior, where voters grow leery of traditional parties. No presidential candidate, including Hillary or Barack, has fingered the Iraq War as the main culprit sabotaging the U.S. economy. GOP candidates, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), have shown no awareness of the war's adverse effect.

      Bloomberg looms as a potential threat to GOP candidates, should the N.Y. mayor throw his third-party hat into the ring. If the economy continues to come unglued, all GOP candidates will be blamed by voters for supporting Bush's economic and foreign policy. Bush's foreign policy, specifically the Iraq War, can be blamed for the cash-crunch that paralyzes the economy. While the subprime mortgage meltdown hasn't helped, the country spends too much of the tax base on foreign wars, pushing the economy into recession. Because Bush's war policies are supported by GOP candidates, voters will seek a new direction in 2008. With or without Bloomberg, the GOP faces an uphill battle to save the White House. With the economy in trouble, Obama will have to put an impressive economic team and plan into place or face more unanswered questions about his experience.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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