Obama's Ace-in-the-Hole for Reelection

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Janaury 11, 2012
All Rights Reserved.                                         

                President Barack Obama faces an uphill but not impossible battle for Florida’s 270 electoral votes, considering a set of changing dynamics that could pull the rug out from underneath GOP presidential frontrunner and expected nominee former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney.  While Romney battles for the Republican nomination, he’s mindful of what lies ahead for the 64-year-old author of Massachusetts’ health care law that served as a model for Obamacare.  Romney cut his teeth as a candidate in ‘08 losing handily to Sen. John McCain, more a case of Party seniority that anything Romney did wrong, other than practicing an alternative Christian faith.  Since McCain’s blowout loss to Obama Nov. 4, 2008, he’s listened attentively to syndicated conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh, who’s blamed Obama since Inauguration Day for the nation’s recession and economic meltdown.

            Since announcing his exploratory committee for president April 11, 2011, Romney bashed Barack for wrecking the U.S. economy.  Parroting Limbaugh’s talking points have been a favorite paradigm for GOP candidates, hoping to convince voters that Obama, not his predecessor former President George W. Bush, was responsible for the nation’s soaring unemployment and economic meltdown.  Romney’s history with Bain Capital raises his stock as someone capable of managing the U.S. economy.  Pinning the sick economy on Obama has been a reasonable strategy up until now, when more convincing evidence emerges regarding the nation’s economic recovery under Barack’s supervision.  Romney walks a tightrope continuing to bash Obama on the economy when there’s more signs everyday, including Fed’s recent report, that the economy is finally turning around.

            A new Quinnipiac poll indicated that Romney beat Obama for president among Florida’s registered voters by 46 to 43%, within the poll’s 2.6% statistical margin-of-error.  What’s significant is the Quinnipiac poll doesn’t account for new economic data showing that the U.S. economy grew by 3% in 2011’s Fourth Quarter.  Obama’s approval ratings, now around 43% aggregate, show improvement along with the economy, now showing signs of recovery.  As voters begin to see improvements in the economy, today’s negative perceptions will turn positive.  “The election isn’t for 10 months so he has plenty of time to turn things around,” said Quinnipiac pollster Peter A. Brown, telling Obama he’s got to mend fences in the Sunshine State.  Nothing mends fences better than concrete improvements in the economy, especially the recent drop in unemployment to 8.5% and new Gross Domestic Product growth figures.

            Romney’s strategy has hinged on bashing Obama on the economy.  If the economy continues to grow, it’s going be a tougher sell, looking more and more disingenuous.  Pinning the bad economy on Obama, then when it improves, giving the president no credit, or, even more phony, crediting GOP members of Congress.  “The Fed’s report Wednesday confirms what everyone else has been seeing in the economic data from retail sales to auto sales and manufacturing—activity is improving,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at Chicago-based BMO Capital Markets, giving the GOP some bad news.  If the GOP only itemizes Obama’s failures and does nothing to highlight a more effective approach at governing, negative campaigning eventually backfires.  While there’s plenty of blame to go around, credit must also be given when things start going well.

            Recent economic data vindicate Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, who’ve practically bent over backwards to stimulate the economy with bailouts and low interest rates.  GOP’s New Hampshire runner-up Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) rambled about hyperinflation, devaluation of the dollar and the need to hack $1 trillion off the federal budget.  Paul’s doom-and-gloom scenarios play well to disenfranchised voters but have been proven so wrong.  After all the low interest rates, bailouts and, more recently, the Fed’s “quantitative easing,” or repurchasing treasury bonds, core inflation remains low.  Both Romney and Paul subscribe to the Austrian School that blames the central bank for excess government spending, devaluing the currency and creating hyperinflation, all haven’t happened since Bernanke took over from Alan Greenspan Feb. 1, 2006.

            If Romney’s eventual candidacy has any prayer of beating Obama next November, he’s going to have to retool his message from Rush Limbaugh’s talking points that Barack created the U.S. economic mess.  If undeniable data prove that the economy is now adding jobs and growing at around 3% with virtually no inflation, it’s going to backfire calling Obama the “jobs killer.”  As the election year wears on, the GOP will have to do more than blame Barack for the weak economy.  More economic strength, including more jobs, eventually gives voters a reason to retain the incumbent for another term.  Whatever Barack’s approval ratings today, they’re bound to improve as the economy continues making progress.  If the economy continues to improve, Barack’s chances of winning reelection, no matter what the GOP’s rhetoric, will get better and better.

  John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.       

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