Obama's Reelection Chances Looking Up

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 7, 2011
All Rights Reserved.                                

                 Since the Nov. 2 midterm election, much has been said the election was a referendum on President Barack Obama.  Barack’s enemies are ready to toss out prematurely his chances of reelection 2012.  Given the abysmal performance on Nov. 2, there’s a message about the status quo, especially the sluggish state of the U.S. economy.  Shuffling his White House staff, Obama knows the stakes and also what must happen before candidates declare themselves in 2011. Barack’s GOP critics would like the public believe that any Republican candidate could the president in a face-to-face match-up.  Despite disappointing results with the economy, the sudden drop in the unemployment rate from 9.8% to 9.4% certainly helps make the argument that Barack’s economic policies are beginning to work.  Economic improvements translate into stronger approval ratings.

            Barack’s lowered approval ratings at around 46% aren’t that bad when you consider the high unemployment and sluggish economy.  With some minor improvements in the economy and wrapping up two foreign wars there’s no limit to Barack’s upside.  Whatever’s not working in the economy or with any legislative agenda, including health care reform, doesn’t change Barack’s charisma or leadership skills, regardless of the public’s frustration. Everyone wants the economy to improve and the wars to end but those seeking the Oval Office must convince the public that they have better answers.  While it’s easy to bash and criticize, it’s more difficult to come up with real fixes to complex problems.  When newly minted House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) seeks to repeal Barack’s historic health care reform next week, it could backfire, driving independents back to Obama.

            Exaggerating Obama’s big obstacles to reelection only gives a false sense of security to those considering running in 2012.  Those same candidates must answer the question of why their party couldn’t deliver on a strong economy and peace during the eight years of the previous administration.  While the GOP wants to finger Barack for all the country’s economic woes, future GOP candidates will have to answer why the Bush-Cheney administration couldn’t get it done, namely, create a vibrant economy with the country at peace.  Whatever Obama’s problems, voters will have to decide whether any GOP candidate could do a better job or show more compassion to unemployed and uninsured voters.  Boehner’s decision to repeal Obamacare could have widespread implications on future voters, uncertain that the GOP would take a compassionate approach to governing.

            Barack knows that between now and the election, all efforts must go toward toward improving the economy and jobs picture.  He knows that the economy was wrecked by years of excessive military spending on unnecessary foreign wars, leaving the economy too weak to manage the financial crisis that left banks depleted of cash by the end of 2007.  Conservatives and Tea Party folks like to bash Obama’s bailouts, without acknowledging that it was precisely the same plan of Bush and his Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.  When Obama did it, namely supporting bailouts, it was an act of socialism but when Bush did it, it was a patriotic act.  When voters in 2012 look at the candidates, they’ll weight carefully empty criticism against real proposals to do things differently.  Given all the complexity, it’s going to be difficult for the GOP to convince voters they’d do things differently.

            Given Barack’s 46% approval ratings, it’s going to be difficult for the GOP to convince voters that they’d have better fixes to the economy.  If Boehner’s approach hints at GOP strategy, voters are left with criticism but no real solutions to fix the nation’s pressing problems.  Barack’s health care plan tried to prevent insurance companies from denying patients insurance or access to coverage because of preexisting conditions was appreciated by all, except the insurance industry consumed by the bottom line.  “We need two strong years of economic growth and a significant reduction of the unemployment rate.  It needs to be moving the right direction,” said Obama’s 2008 campaign consultant Steve Murphy, musing about Barack’s reelection bid.  Even if the economy doesn’t go upward, Barack’s chances of reelection remain good because his critics have no better answers.

            All the hand-wringing about Barack’s chances of reelection, voters will look long and hard before they switch horses.  With no major scandals in his White House, Barack still offers the best national voice, considering his politics have moved more to the center.  When Obama signed on to continuing the Bush tax cuts, it signaled that he was willing to do anything to stimulate the economy.  He also showed that, unlike the first two years, he was willing to reach across the aisle to find common ground with Republicans.  Heading into the next election cycle, the GOP will try to only demonize Obama, regardless of his bipartisan results.  Trying to repeal health care sounds like a sound strategy until you realize that most voters want the government to do more, not less.  Obama’s vocal critics can’t take too much comfort from the fact that he’s still at 46% approval ratings in a down economy.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2005 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.