by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 8, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

reathing a little easier, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) squeaked out a victory [39%-36%] over her closest rival Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.), foiling predictions that she would lose her second primary. Thanks to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Hillary got a reprieve, helped by New Hampshire's independent voters who gave McCain the edge over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney [37%-32%]. Siphoning off independent votes hurt Obama, where New Hampshire helped McCain repeat his pyrrhic victory in 2000 against eventual GOP nominee President George W. Bush. Pre-election polling had Obama up by 10%-12%, a reversal of 15%, a great come-from-behind victory for Hillary. Winning New Hampshire gives Hillary the bounce heading into Michigan's Jan. 15 primary, despite the fact that the Wolverine State was stripped of delegates for holding an early vote.

      Few pundits calculated the potential loss of independent votes from McCain, whose campaign unraveled last summer, now given new life in New Hampshire. McCain is not sure thing in either Michigan or Southern states, where evangelicals wield more clout. Winning New Hampshire helps McCain make the case that he's a serious contender despite his poor showing in Iowa. Romney's loss lands a punishing blow, where he spent millions in New Hampshire before Election Day. New Hampshire gives McCain credibility going forward but doesn't address how he intends to sway religious and social conservatives opposed to his stands on immigration, taxes and abortion. McCain's foreign policy background and his strong support for the troop surge give him more clout heading into Feb. 5 Super-Tuesday where the nation's most delegate-rich states vote.

      Hillary was pumped after the networks called the race in her direction. Her turnaround was made more dramatic by pre-election predictions, handing the race to Obama. Obama needed New Hampshire more than Hillary to continue his momentum heading into Super-Tuesday where 1688 delegates are pledged. Clinton already enjoys a sizable lead in delegate-rich states scheduled to vote on Super Tuesday. Had he won New Hampshire, it might have siphoned off momentum from Hillary. As it stands now, Clinton has 131 committed delegates, Obama 71. Should Clinton prevail on Feb. 5, it's going to be difficult for Barack to make up the difference. “You know, a few weeks ago no one imagined that we'd have accomplished what we did here tonight in New Hampshire,” said Barack, delivering his concession speech only wondering what might have been.

      Delegate-math favors Clinton unless Obama can sweep Michigan [Jan. 15], South Carolina [Jan. 19], Nevada [Jan. 26] and Florida [Jan. 29], not so much for the actual delegates because Michigan and Florida get no delegates, but for the psychological advantage heading into Super Tuesday. Winning New Hampshire fired up a dispirited Clinton campaign, stinging from the loss in Iowa. Some say that things turned around for Hillary once she shed tears Jan. 7 on the campaign trail, making her look more human. Others say that the women's vote and race-factor upended Obama's expected victory. Because of high expectations for Obama and low expectations for Hillary, New Hampshire deflates Barack's Iowa-bounce and gives Clinton a boost heading into Michigan. Hillary dramatic victory reminded voters that her campaign can compete and go the distance.

      Obama chose to ignore his loss during his Jan. 8 concession speech, preferring to trumpet grand themes of his underdog campaign. “We know the battle ahead may be long. But always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change,” said Obama to cheering supporters. What he didn't say was his change theme, as opposed to experience, has been co-opted by the Clinton camp, reshaping her message before the next set of primaries. For Obama to get out his message, he's going to have to remind voters that Hillary would return Washington to the days of pitched partisanship, something Iowa voters rejected. Going forward, Obama will have to get more specific, especially how he intends to fix the economy and end the war in Iraq, coming up with a better plan than his opponents.

      New Hampshire turned the Republican and Democratic races upside down, reclaiming Hillary as front-runner and putting pressure on Barack to be perfect before Super Tuesday. A loss in Michigan, despite not losing delegates, would lend more fuel to Hillary's campaign heading into Super Tuesday. Between now and next week, Barack must broaden his appeal to the Democratic base, something Clinton has done a good job of securing. Unlike New Hampshire, upcoming primaries will be more about capturing core voters than appealing to independents and crossovers. That's a problem for a partisan Democratic candidate in the general election. Obama can take heart that his New Hampshire loss had more to do with McCain siphoning off independent votes than instant love for Hillary. He doesn't have much time left to convince Super Tuesday's delegate-rich states that he's the guy.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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