GOP Race Favors Early Romney Wrap-Up

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Janaury 6, 2012
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                Winning the Iowa Caucuses by eight votes January 3, former Mass Gov. Mitt Romney answered any lingering questions about how his Mormon faith hurts his chances among Iowa’s evangelical Christians.  Runner-up in Iowa, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.) was beaten as his own game, pandering to Tea Party folks, especially evangelicals, the voting block cultivated by strategist Karl Rove and used by former President George W. Bush to win two terms in office.  While other factors got Bush elected in 2000 and reelected in 2004, evangelicals held together, giving overwhelming support to the former president.  Despite Santorum’s strong religious conservative credentials, he was bested in the Iowan Bible Belt by the moderate leaning Mormon candidate.  Romney’s victory, narrow as it was, prompted an endorsement January 4 by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)

            McCain, who lost to President Barack Obama in 2008, has been bashing the president ever since, finding nothing good to cheer about.  While McCain wants to anoint Romney, he needs to finally admit his catastrophic mistake four years ago in picking former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.  McCain insisted Palin was a magnet for the women’s vote and future of the Republican Party, proving, if nothing else, his crystal ball failed.  Rep. Michele Bachmann’s (R-Minn.) abrupt departure from the race yesterday proves, once again, that voters aren’t inclined toward right wing extremists.  Romney’s success in unfriendly evangelical territory proves that even devout Christians want to win next November.  When the primary shifts Nov. 10 to New Hampshire, Romney holdsdouble-digit leads, despite Rep. Santorum’s 24.5% and Rep. Ron Paul’s (R-Texas) impressive 21.4%, appealing largely to youth voters.

            Satorum is assured virtually no carryover to New Hampshire, hoping he can prevail in South Carolina’s Jan. 21 evangelical-friendly primary.  Even if Satorum prevails in South Carolina, it’s tough sledding the rest of February.  Given the schedule, Romney could steamroll his way through January and February, wrapping up the 144 delegates need for the nomination.  McCain’s right suggesting that the GOP pick Romney early and get “to the main event,” defeating Barack next November.  None of remaining candidates, including Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Gorgia), Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Utah Gov. John Huntsman or former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.) have a prayer of beating Obama in the Fall.  Even Romney united behind the GOP faces tough sledding.  If the economy continues to improve and add jobs, all bets are off.

            Promising a tougher fight in New Hampshire, Gingrich painted himself as a Reagan conservative, blasting Romney for being a Massachusetts moderate.  Gingrich blamed his anemic fourth place finish in Iowa at 13.3% on Romney’s attack ads.  Newt has considerable difficulty admitting revelations about his $1.6 million consulting job at Fannie Mae sabotaged his campaign.  He had a hard time explaining why he took such hefty fees from a federal government-backed agency that essentially went bust in 2008.  “I will defend free enterprise.  I won’t be confused about it, won’t be timid about it, I’m prepared to be bold, this Reagan’s bold,” said Newt, comparing himself to Republican icon the late President Ronald Reagan.  Gingrich’s fall from grace directly related to taking cash from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both now under government receivership.

            Romney hopes to have the nomination sewn up by Florida’s Jan. 31 primary where 50 delegates are at stake.  While he might not have all 144 delegates, he should be well on his way before 496 delegates are awarded between March 3-6.  Having endorsed Romney and believing there’s only one viable candidate, McCain went for the jugular against the upstart Santorum.  “I believe earmarking is a gateway to corruption.  Sen. Santorum supported it and engaged in it as much as he possibly could.  I strongly disagreed with it,” said McCain, hoping to knock Santorum off the pedestal before Saturday’s GOP debate in New Hampshire.  Whether or not Santorum supported earmarks, he doesn’t have the cash to compete in the upcoming primaries.  Santorum must appeal to a far wider cross-section of the GOP than Tea Party folks or religious conservatives.

            Romney’s got wind at his back sailing into next Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.  While only worth 12 delegates, New Hampshire should create momentum heading into South Carolina where some 26 delegates are at stake.  South Carolina’s evangelical community holds more hope for Santorum but could hand Romney the key to the GOP nomination.  Most primary voters understand the stakes for next November.  While inclined toward a fellow evangelical, the lion’s share of S.C. Republicans voters want a winner, capable of giving Obama a run for his money.  “Anybody can win this in the next 16 days,” said S.C. Republican Party Chairman Chad Connelly, encouraging candidate to stump hard in the Palmetto State.  Most of S.C.’s Republican voters have already made up their minds.  After Romney steamrolls New Hampshire, he’s got a good shot wrapping it all up.

  John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.       

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