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White House Pauses While GOP Takes Over Senate
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
January 5, 2015 All Rights Reserved.
President Barack Obama finds his options narrowing as
the GOP takes control of the U.S. Senate, commanding the biggest majority in the
House since Harry Truman left the White House Jan. 20, 1953. Posing headaches for an already lame
duck president, Obama has limited options advancing his agenda in any area now
that theSenate has gone Republican.
Whether GOP members of Congress can upend Obamacare or any other reform is
anyone’s guess. Republicans in
Congress walk a tightrope trying to govern before the 2016 presidential
election. If the GOP hardcore look
to zealots imposing a right wing agenda, they’ll likely hand the presidency over
to the next Democratic nominee, most likely former First Lady, New York Senator
and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.
If the public sees too much partisanship in the Senate, it could backfire
on the GOP.
Whether kismet or not,
Obama will be treated with his 2008 nemesis Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) who
ascends to the throne of the Armed Services Committee. McCain hasn’t been happy with much
of Obama’s foreign policy, especially his feckless response in Ukraine, giving
Russian President Vladimir Putin free reign to bully Ukraine and former Soviet
satellites. McCain and other
conservatives on Capitol Hill believe Obama’s reluctance to give 49-year-old
Ukrainian President Petro Porshenko direct military aid emboldened Putin to
seize Crimea. McCain thinks Obama’s
hesitation in the Mideast gave rise to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
[ISIS], creating more havoc in the region.
McCain supports limited boots-on-the-ground for U.S. forces to take back
control of key areas from ISIS. No
one in the GOP foreign policy establishment believes Obama’s ISIS strategy
works.
McCain and Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who takes over as head of the
Foreign Relations Committee, see eye-to-eye on projecting more U.S. military
power abroad. They disagree
strongly with the Obama doctrine:
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix I,” referring to his cautions approach to U.S.
foreign policy. McCain and Corker
more closely parallel the military and foreign policy of former President George
W. Bush who believed in preemption, especially in the wake of Sept. 11. While Obama holds the veto, he’s
used it only two times in the last six years, reluctant to alienate members of
Congress. McCain and Corker have more leverage on the Senate Finance Committee now led by Sen. Oren
Hatch (R-Utah). Together with his
counterpart on the Senate Banking Committee Sen. Michael Crapo (R-Idaho), Obama
can expect the GOP to push for more defense spending in 2015.
Like the GOP that must show in the next year they can work with
Democrats, Obama too has to show more bipartisanship or he’ll give voters a
reason to pick a Republican in 2016.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) wants more money allocated
to the Pentagon, despite the 2013 GOP-led sequester that slashed defense
spending over $80 billion to $593 billion or over 10%, in 2014. McConnell wants to reinstate
Pentagon cash while slashing money in popular entitlement programs like Medicare
and Social Security. “I’d like to
see more money for defense,” said McConnell, fearing that Democrats would ask
for more cash for domestic programs.
Republicans and Democrats walk a tightrope trying to impose their will on
both parties, alienating voters before the 2016 presidential election. Both parties need to seek common
ground.
White House and conservatives on Capitol Hill can find a common issue in
the Keystone XL pipeline. While
Obama vetoed the Keystone XL pipeline in 2012, he’s got good reasons to let the
project go forward. Despite
concerns of environmentalists or, for that matter opponents like Sen. Chuck
Schumer (D-N.Y.), Obama should let the project move ahead. Barack correctly pointed out that while it might not create an economic boom, it helps
U.S. energy independence by strengthening the Canadian oil shale industry. Bringing oil shale from Haradisty,
Alberta to Houston, Texas improves the delivery of crude oil to refineries in
the Gulf. While there’s a direct
benefit to the Canadian oil industry, there’s an indirect benefit to U.S.
consumers by making Canadian oil more available at lower prices. Obama and the Democratic Party would
benefit directly from passing the last leg of the Keystone XL pipeline.
Republicans walk a fine line
trying to impose their agenda on Obama in the last two years of his presidency. If Obama relents on Keystone XL, the GOP
should let go of factional opposition to normalizing relations with Cuba. Most economists see the 64-year-old
economic embargo hurting American businesses more than Cuba. With Russian President Vladimir Putin
seeking a bigger foothold in the Western Hemisphere, there’s nothing that hurts
his plans more than the U.S. normalizing relations with Cuba. Most historians believe the U.S. embargo
pushed Cuba closer to Russia out of sheer necessity, rather than ideological
affinity. Showing Obama flexibility on
Cuba and fighting ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria, should win concessions on
Keystone XL. Unlike partisans like
Schumer, Obama looks to cement his legacy by finding common
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