Muqtada al-Sadr Returns to Claim Iraq

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 5, 2011
All Rights Reserved.                                

          When a charismatic 34-year-old Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr took on the U.S. military Dec. 23, 2004 in the Battle of Fallujah, it foretold the future of Iraq.  After stringing up dead U.S. soldiers on bridges, the U.S. military placed a hefty bounty on al-Sadr’s head.  Driven incognito and eventually off the map, al-Sadr fled to Tehran for his safety, until finally returning to Iraq Jan. 4.  Since consolidating power in Baghdad, Iraq’s U.S.-backed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki used the al-Sadr’s10,000-man al-Mahdi militia as his personal bodyguards.  Al-Sadr’s strong ties to al-Maliki and Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad opens the door to his inevitable control of Iraq.  With U.S. forces slated for withdrawal in 2011, al-Sadr is perfectly positioned for an eventual takeover.  Unlike al-Maliki’s strong U.S. ties, al-Sadr has played both sides, winning him national support.

            Al-Sadr seeks nothing short of a Taliban-like Islamic theocracy in Iraq, holding close ties to Iran’s supreme religious Leader Ali Khamenei.  Both see al-Maliki’s overthrow as essential to establish a seamless state between Iran an Iraq.  While Iraq’s late dictator Saddam Hussein kept Iran at arm’s length fighting a bloody 9-year war 1980-1988, today’s Shiite government has close ties.  No one in former President George W. Bush’s State Department, including former Secretaries of State Colin A. Powell and Condoleezza Rice, imagined Iraq would wind up in Iranian hands.  Now committed to leaving Iraq later this year, President Barack Obama sits idly by while al-Sadr makes his triumphant return to Baghdad.  Al-Maliki pretends he has a stormy relationship with the now 37-year al-Sadr, when, in fact, it’s a matter of time before al-Maliki finds himself on the outs.

            Saddam’s former Baathist Party kept the Shiite majority oppressed, actually assassinating Muqtada al-Sadr’s Shiite Cleric father, Mohammed Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr Feb. 19, 1999.  Based in Najaf and considered the Grand Ayatollah of Iraq, the elder al-Sadr’s death was a blow to the Shiite community.  When the U.S. fought the first Gulf War in 1991, U.S. foreign policy experts, including Powell and former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft, worried about toppling Saddam.  Ridding the country of Saddam’s Sunni-dominated secular government opened the door for today’s Islamic power struggle that leaves al-Sadr close to dominating Iraq.  “He’s our hero.  We sacrificed for him.  He said ‘No’ to the Americans and fought the Americans, and he is brave,” said Mohammed Ali, one of Sadr’s many followers.  Now that al-Sadr’s returned to Iraq, he’s on his way to power.

            Al-Sadr’s return to Iraq spells the eventual demise of the U.S.-backed al-Maliki government.  Returning to al-Sadr’s seat of power in the southern city of Najaf presents problems for the aging al-Maliki, not capable of rallying support to his government.  Al-Sadr offers Shiites the unique brand of charismatic leadership needed to consolidate power and establish a new Iraqi theocracy.  While the U.S. has a top bounty of al-Sadr’s head, U..S. forces are inclined to stay away from the popular cleric.  Missing since 2007, al-Sadr returns to Iraq precisely because the U.S. is no longer interested in confrontation.  Al-Maliki’s 2009 campaign against al-Sadr’s following in Baghdad’s Sadr City and the southeastern city of Basra attempted to preempt al-Sadr’s eventual rise to power.  Al-Sadr’s al-Mahdi militia remains poised to protect the Shiite cleric and once again assert his power.

            Al-Maliki insisted that al-Sadr would never return to power in Iraq.  Since Al-Sadr’s exile in 2007, al-Maliki used the al-Mahdi militia as his personal bodyguards, preventing a Sunni-led coup.  Now that al-Sadr’s back in Najaf, it’s likely for all the marbles, once Obama pulls out.  Letting al-Sadr seize power would leave U.S. policy in shambles.  With his close ties to Iran, al-Sadr would run Iraq from Tehran, handing Ahmadinejad and Khamenei the power to control Iraq.  Iraq’s strong Shiite majority no longer tolerates Sunni or Kurdish rule, preferring ethnic cleansing over plurality.  When Saddam allowied his Sunni Baathists to run Iraq, he had no intention of relinquishing control.  For the foreseeable future, the Shiites now rule Iraq.  Iraq’s Shiite southern provinces won’t cede one inch of territory back to Sunni-dominated former Saddam loyalists.

            Returning to Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr asserts his pedigree as Shiites' premier Islamic cleric.  While the 60-year-old al-Maliki hangs on to his fragile secular government, Shiite fundamentalists, supported by Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seek al-Sadr’s religious rule in Iraq.  “Now, the anti-U.S. political figures, whether Shiite of Sunnis, are feeling that they are more confident now and their role in shaping Iraq’s future is expanding.  The Iraqi government is more ready than ever to accept and include figures known for their anti-U.S. stances,” said Iraqi top political analyst Hadi Jalo.  With the U.S. on the way out, Jalo sees a perfect opportunity for al-Sadr to consolidate his power and position himself for an eventual takeover.  When the situation is right, al-Sadr won’t hesitate to topple al-Maliki and impose religious rule over Iraq.  

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

©1999-2005 Discobolos Consulting Services, Inc.
(310) 204-8300
All Rights Reserved.