by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 5, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

eading to the Middle East, President George W. Bush hopes to salvage his legacy pushing a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Back in 2000, only two months before the controversial election that put Bush in office and only five months before he left office, former President Bill Clinton used his all his charm to nail down a Mideast peace between PLO leader Yasser Arafat and former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. When talks collapsed in Aug. 2000, Arafat gave the green light to a new “intifada” or uprising, culminating in a deadly cycle of Arab-Israeli violence. From the ashes of that failure, the radical group Hamas acquired more power. On June 13, 2007, Hamas seized control of Gaza, leaving Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas only in control of the West Bank. Now Bush visits Abbas, pretending that Hamas doesn't exist.

      Bush hopes to cut a deal with Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, ignoring Hamas and pressuring Gaza's leader Ismail Haniyeh to capitulate. With violence erupting daily, Bush's peace plan would push Palestinians to civil war. Bush doesn't quite get it that his so-called allies, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, won't sell-out Hamas, no matter how chummy a deal with Abbas. Bush wants to use Arab-Palestinian peacemaking to push Gulf-state allies to pressure Tehran into giving up its nuclear ambitions. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahamadinejad has made it clear that there will be no compromise on Iran's right to pursue the nuclear fuel cycle. When the National Intelligence Estimate released Dec. 3, 2007 indicated Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, Bush could no longer label Iran an urgent threat.

      Bush heads to the Middle East while Republican and Democratic candidates slug it out in the New Hampshire Primary, where Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), reeling from her third place finish in Iowa, fights for her life. While attention focuses on domestic politics, Bush can fly under the radar, trying to put together a peace deal. Abbas and Olmert know that ignoring Hamas invites problems, possible civil war. “I will discuss the importance of countering the aggressive ambitions of Iran,” said Bush in his weekly radio address, continuing the drumbeat about Iran. While no one likes Iran enriching uranium, or worse yet building and A-bomb, former Centom Commander John P. Abizaid said the U.S. could deal with a nuclear-armed Iran, just as it has Pakistan or any other nuclear adversary. Bush's alarm has less bite since the release of the last National Intelligence Estimate.

      All presidents, especially in their waning days, seek Mideast peace, especially the prospects of winning a Nobel Peace Prize. Since Arafat's death Nov. 11, 2004, his Palestinian Authority has wielded less influence, especially in Gaza where some 1.2 million Palestinians live in crowded conditions. When Hamas was voted by Palestinians into office Jan. 26, 2006, the dynamics of Mideast peace changed, with the State Department-branded terror group wielding more clout. For years, the resistance group, created from Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and founded in 1987 by paraplegic Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi, Hamas provided humanitarian and medical relief services in the occupied territories. When Arafat died, Palestinians turned to Hamas, disappointed with Arafat's corrupt and clumsy management of Palestinian affairs.

      Now a lame duck, Bush has little clout either to threaten war with Iran or press for a Middle East peace with only half the Palestinian people. As much as the U.S. would like to pretend Hamas doesn't exist, most Palestinians trust the radical group more than Fatah movement and Palestinian Authority. While many Sunni regimes don't trust Iran's goals or leadership, they are unwilling to confront Tehran on their nuclear enrichment program. Bush has little recourse other than working with Mohamed ElBaradei and the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. With the U.S. bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, the military stretched and the economy sputtering, Bush has limited options in Tehran. Gunboat diplomacy won't intimidate Ahmadinejad into making concessions. Bush should promote goodwill not coerce U.S. friends and allies.

      Making a stab at Mideast peacemaking is a good distraction from an economy teetering on recession because of an interminable war. No economy—no matter how prosperous—can pay $12 billion a month without getting stretched to the breaking point. Pushing a Mideast peace that includes only half the people invites civil war and doesn't recognize Palestinians' duly elected government. Until Palestinians resolve their differences, the White House has no business imposing peace a deal without recognizing the elected government. “I will consult with our partners in the war against these extremists,” said Bush, revealing that his Mideast mission has more to do with pressuring allies than peacemaking. Instead of running to the Middle East, Bush should be brainstorming with the Pentagon to find an exit strategy before the Iraq War takes down the economy.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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