Iran Plays Deadly Game of Chicken with U.S.

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Janaury 4, 2012
All Rights Reserved.                                         

                Feeling the economic noose tightening in Tehran, the Iran’s Islamic regime lashed out at the U.S., threatening aircraft carrier U.S.S. John C. Stennis, steaming from the Gulf of Oman toward the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz.  Iran’s currency has been in freefall, losing 40% of its value against the U.S. dollar in the past month.  Currency traders see new U.S. and European Union sanctions as crippling the already battered Persian economy.  With 80% of the Iranian economy dependent on oil sales, new sanctions severely restrict oil sales to the EU.  “Iran will not repeat its warning . . . the enemy’s carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill.  I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not return to the Persian Gulf,” said Iranian Army Chief Ataollah Salehi, warning the U.S. not to travel in the Persian Gulf’s unrestricted international waters.

            Whatever the provocation, the U.S. Navy travels freely in international waters around the globe.  No Persian warning or threat stops the U.S.from moving about in international waters.  Any act of Iranian aggression would be met with deadly force, perhaps triggering a wider conflagration.  Since Iranian militants sacked the U.S. Embassy in Tehran Nov. 4, 1979, holding 52 hostages for 444 days, the U.S. has been on a war footing with Iran.  Nothing has changed even after hostages were released at twelve noon, Jan. 20, 1981, Inauguration Day for the late President Ronald Reagan.  “I advise, recommend and warn them over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once,” said Salehi, threatening to attack the John C. Stennis.  While most experts see Iran bluffing, all bets are off once the carrier travels through the Strait of Hormuz.

            U.S. Navy forces don’t back down from idle threats, especially where maritime travel is legal in international waters.  “The deployment of U.S. military assets in the Persian Gulf region will continue as it has for decades,” said U.S. Navy spokesman Bill Speaks.  Iran’s threats stem from the squeeze felt by new sanctions against its uranium enrichment program. While Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad promises to restart nuclear talks, the Iranians have done next to nothing to comply with International Atomic Energy Agency inspections, requiring Iran to open up its nuclear facilities without restrictions.  Western officials, especially the U.S. and Israel, are concerned about Iran’s attempts to make weapons grade uranium, a precursor to building its first A-bomb.  Iran believes it’s well within its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.

            Iran’s new threat drove crude oil prices up $4.24 a barrel or 4.29%, jolting commodity markets, sparking a rally in gold, rising $40.10 an ounce to $1,606.90, or 2.56%.  Few experts believe Iran will actually attack the U.S. in the Persian Gulf’s international waters.  Playing a dangerous game of chicken, Iran hopes to get the U.S. to back down.  When Iran intercepted a predator drown last month, they milked the PR game to expose their military prowess and U.S. ineptitude.  Today’s warning continues the public flogging, pushing the U.S. into a confrontation.  Any military confrontation would have disastrous consequences for Iran and region.  World oil prices would spike skyward, no doubt hurting the global economy.  China, a major buyer of Iranian crude oil, has already signaled they want steep discounts from Tehran.  Without showing preferences, China tends to side with Iran.

            Iran has defied the international community on suspending to freezing its uranium enrichment program.  They’ve never accepted the global resolve to halt what looks like an advanced nuclear enrichment program.  Now that the EU’s turning the screws on Tehran, the Irnanian regime has been more aggressive.  Last week Ahmandinejad promised the Persian Nation would not take new sanctions lying down, promising aggressive military actions.  Engaging in 10 days of naval exercises in the Gulf, Tehran test-fired a new short-range missile, designed to intimidate the U.S. Navy.  While Iowa starts its caucuses to pick a GOP candidate, the world has become a more dangerous place.  All three leading GOP candidates have committed to a war with Iran to stop its nuclear program.  Iran’s recent threats represent a provocative threat to U.S. world superpower status.

            Pushing the Iranian regime into a confrontation with U.S. plays well to Ahmadinejad’s political base.  With Tehran’s mullahs tossing reform-minded former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s daughter into prison, any confrontation with the U.S. would help consolidate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad’s reign of power.   Cracking down now on Raezeh Hashemi Rasfanjani sends a message to potential protesters expecting another brutal crackdown.  “Such threats can cause market confidence in the global oil supply to wobble and can push up oil prices and shipping insurance prices.  For the EU power debating new sanctions, this could be quite a pinch in the current economic climate,” said Henry Wilkinson at London’s Janusian Risk Advisory Consultants.  Whether war with Iran is avoidable or not, Washington and Tehran have very different agendas.

  John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.       

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