by John M. Curtis
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Copyright January 1, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

ike two prizefighters battling to the last punch, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il), pressed their case with only hours left till the Iowa caucuses. Former Sen. John Edwards runs close behind, picking up the endorsement of consumer advocate and former presidential candidate Ralph Nader. While conventional wisdom still goes with Clinton, Obama has shown affinity to independent and crossover voters, potentially putting him over the top on Election Day. A final poll by the Des Moines Register places Obama four points ahead, over the statistical margin of error. No one knows for sure what will happen on Jan. 3. It's unprecedented to have an African American presidential candidate either favored or leading the polls. With the race too close to call, the momentum appears with Obama but polls don't tell the whole story inside the voting booth.

      Obama showed confidence heading into the home stretch though expressed some caution. “The polls look good, but understand that—the polls are not enough. The only thing that counts is whether or not you show up to the caucus,” Barack told an overflowing crowd in a high school gymnasium. Obama's message resonates with independents and crossovers tired of the bitter partisanship witnessed during Clinton and Bush years. Barack promises a new civility, something sorely needed to heal divisions caused by the Iraq War. While Republican candidates draw sparse crowds, even lowly Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.), whos's drawing in the low single-digits, draws more crowds than front-running GOP candidates. If Iowa is any gauge of national sentiment, it appears voters seek change in 2008, even where old faces like Hillary Rodham Clinton are concerned.

      GOP front-runners former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) and former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-Ark.) are locked in a bitter fight, trading barbs in televised attack ads. Romney has spent over $17 million of his personal fortune to make his race competitive. Romney likes to say he's not beholden to anyone but himself. In reality, Romney has no real political base or following, forced to spend his own savings to remain competitive. On the other hand, Gov. Huckabeee has spent very little and remains the front-runner heading to Iowa. With Romney's lead in New Hampshire tightening, a Huckabee victory in Iowa could land a knockout punch. Romney's Mormon faith doesn't play well to religious conservatives making up a sizable portion of GOP caucus goers. If the present trends hold, Huckabee could pull off a big upset, leaving Romney scrambling only five days before New Hampshire.

      Huckabee and Obama have telegenic personalities, helping them connect with a larger audience. Candidates like Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), former N.Y. Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former an actor Sen. Fred Thomson (R-Tenn.) haven't resonated with Iowa voters. Huckabee and Obama's easy, down-to-earth style reminds voters that it's possible to relate to presidential candidates. “It does remind you a bit of a person who stands up and says I'm not going to call my opponent any names, but here are the names I'd call him if I were going to call names,” said Romney, complaining about Huckabee's attack ads. Getting that sinking feeling, Romney sees limitations to financing his own campaign, watching helplessly as evangelicals abandon ship. Attacking Huckabee hasn't delivered too many votes for Romney, leaving the Arkansas governor primed for the Thursday upset.

      Obama's wife Michele showed confidence that Barack would pull out the victory in Iowa. “When Barack is the next president of the United States,” said Michele, responding to the recent Des Moines Register poll. She's been reacting to Hillary and Bill's criticism that Barack lacks foreign policy experience. “If you want to look inside my mouth to figure out whether you want to vote for me, that's fine too,” Hillary joked to students at Iowa State University. “Whatever it takes,” showing more less confidence about pulling out the victory Jan. 3. Iowans mirror the rest of the country looking for a fresh face in 2008. No matter how good Hillary's ideas, she's going to be opposed by the GOP on every proposal. Iowans sense that there's more partisanship with Hillary than Barack, giving Iowans second thought about helping Hillary win the Democratic Party nomination.

      If Iowans are any gauge of the rest of the country, they seek change in 2008, tired of Bush's empty promises about the economy and Iraq. No GOP candidate other than Huckabee has criticized Bush's economic and foreign policy. “President Bush didn't read it [National Intelligence Estimate] for four years. I don't know why I should read it in four hours,” Huckabee told the Mason City Globe Gazette, responding to Romney's criticism. Few Democratic candidates and none of the GOP candidates—other than Huckabee—have criticized Bush about the economy or his foreign policy. Iowans don't rubber stamp Bush's policies. They see the nation's collective frustration that leave voters seeking change. Huckabee and Obama have dared to criticize Bush, stood outside the box and are getting rewarded by independently-minded caucus-goers looking for a new direction in 2008.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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