When Saudi Arabia’s Abaqiq oil refinery was hit by a predator drone and Cruise missiles Sept. 14, wiping out 5% of the world’s refined oil capacity, Iran denied any involvement. With the war raging in Yemen since 2015, it’s easy to blame Yemen’s Houthi rebels for past attacks on Saudi’s oil installations and Riyadh’s International Airport. Saturday’s attack was especially egregious because the origin of the attack was not Yemen but southern Iran. New analysis of the attacks show that the predator drones and missiles apparently flew under Saudi radar to hit the Abqaiq refining facility, causing widespread damage, spiking world markets 10% “Everything points to them [Iran],” said an unnamed Saudi official, not authorized to speak to the media. “The debris, the intel and points of impact,” all point to Iran said Saudi officials, not knowing how to proceed.
President Donald Trump said yesterday that the U.S. was “locked-and-loaded, “ meaning willing to respond if Saudi Arabia determines that collective action is needed to prevent another attack. Saudi Defense Minister, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is due to release preliminary findings Wednesday when he meets in Jedda with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Bin Salman knows that he has the full backing of the U.S. military to deal with any future threat coming from Yemen or Iran. Iran’s denials provide little reassurance to the U.S. or Saudi Arabia. When Iran shot down a Global Hawk drone June 20, they insisted the U.S. aerial vehicle wandered into Iranian air space, something the U.S. denies. Trump said at the time that the U.S. reserved the right to respond to the attack at a time of its choosing, reluctant to launch retaliatory due to possible collateral damage.
When Iran denies it has anything to do with attacks on Saudi Arabia, they typically point to Houthi rebels, but, more importantly, don’t consider the Hezbollah militia or even al-Quds force part of the Revolutionary guards. Pompeo said Saturday that U.S. intel confirms that Iran was responsible for the attack on Saudi’s Abaqiq refinery and Khurais oild field. U.S. allies, France and the U.K. say at this point they have no proof Iran was responsible for the attack. “For the moment, France has no proof that would allow all us to say that the drones came from this or that place,” said French Foreign Minister Jeean Yves le Drian in Cairo. German officials remained neutral but said it was doubtful the Yemen’s Houthi repels launched the predator drone attacks and Cruise missiles without any outside help. Germany wants to de-escalate the incident no matter what Iran did.
Saudi Arabia asked the international community for support to respond to the attack when they have proof of who’s responsible. Saudi officials rejected claims by Houthi rebels that they attacked the Abaqiq refinery and Khurais oil field. U.S. officials deployed more warships to the Persian Gulf, in response to recent Limpet bomb attacks on oil freighters in the Persian Gulf. Saudi officials said they would ask the U.N. to send weapons inspectors to determine the origin of the attacks. U.S. officials have also been to the Abaqiq refinery and Khurais oil field to examine the debris from Cruise missile components. “I am very concerned with the administration, which seems trying to ratchet this up,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). “We don’t even have a mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, on what legal basis would the president try to attack Iran? We need to get the facts together.” Trump has said that he’s waiting for Saudi Arabia to provide guidance.
Trump has concerns that because Iran is under sanctions on their oil sales, they want to prevent U.S. ally Saudi Arabia from selling their oil into world markets. Whatever the capability of Saudi’s Patriot Missile batteries, it didn’t prevent the world’s largest oil refinery from attack. “The capabilities of rogue states, non-state actors to use tools like drones—we’re in a brave new world here,” said Mr. Warner. Warner expressed concerns that Trump would approve air strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, putting U.S. naval assets at risk in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Warner wants to focus on cyber warfare and use of drones but doesn’t want Trump launching retaliatory strikes on Tehran. Without pointing fingers at Iran, Trump said the U.S. was committed to finding the answer sometime soon. Saudi Arabia is concerned that the same attacks could repeat in the future.
Iran’s on thin ice with Trump after downing a Global Hawk surveillance drone June 20, claiming it strayed into Iranian airspace. Trump said at the time the U.S. would reserve thr right to respond at its convenience. Watching Saudi’s biggest refinery get hit is a game-changer, since the strikes disrupted the global petroleum reserve. World oil prices spiked yesterday, increasing pump prices in the U.S., Europe and Asia. “I’m not looking to get into a new conflict,” Trump said today. “But sometimes you have to,” indicating that he’d do what Saudi Arabia wanted. Whether or not the U.S. has a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, the world has a vested interest in keeping the free flow of oil in the Persian Gulf or elsewhere. “The Saudis want very much for us to protect them, but I say, well , we have to work, Trump said Monday. “There was an attack on Saudi Arabia and wasn’t an attack on us.”
