Tensions between the U.S. and Iran hit the boiling point, as British Royal Marines seized false-flagged Iranian Supertanker Grace 1 July 4 carrying 1.2 million barrels of crude oil near Gilbralter heading to Syria. Iran insists that the United Kingdom is running “scared” after Iran promised to retaliate in-kind for the seizure. Iran sees the interdiction as a act of British “piracy” when, in fact, the U.K. operated on behalf of the European Union, where Iran breached its sanctions. Iran’s been under heavy sanctions since 73-year-old President Donald Trump cancelled the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA], slapping Iran with new punitive sanctions for its ongoing proxy war in Yemen against Saudi Arabia. Iran has been reeling economically from Trump’s sanctions, cutting its Rial currency by three quarters, driving Iran’s economy into recession.
On high alert in the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, Britain has been put on notice that Iran seeks to retaliate for its enforcement of Iranian sanctions. “I am openly saying that Britain should be scared of Iran’s retaliating measures over the illegal seizure of the Iranian tankers,” Cleric Mohammad Ali Mousavi Jazayeri, a member of Iran’s powerful Assembly of Experts. “We have shown that we will never remain silent against bullying—As we gave a staunch response to the American drone, the appropriate response to this illegal capture [of the tanker] will be given by Iran as well,” Jazayeri said Iran demanded that the supertanker be returned immediately for seizure from one of the British Royal Navy’s ships. Trump dispatched the Carrier Battle Group Abraham Lincoln in the Persian Gulf June 9, putting Iran on notice that more aggressive acts will be met with force.
Testing Trump’s patience, Iran shot down a Global Hawk unmanned surveillance drone June 20, claiming it strayed into Iran’s airspace. Pentagon officials released the GPS and telemetry data showing the drone was at least 20 miles from Iran’s airspace. When Pentagon officials drew up retaliatory plans, Trump vetoed it at the last minute, citing the potential for civilian casualties. Trump let Iran know that he reserved the right to retaliate at a time of his convenience. Holding the supertanker 28-member crew of Pakistani, Indian and Ukrainian sailors for questioning, Britain wants to establish the exact origin and destination of the cargo. British officials said July 5 that it extended the detention for 14 days to finish its investigation. U.S. officials said the false-flagged tanker was headed to Syria, violating EU sanctions. With Iran’s threats, British Naval officials were on high alert.
Iran claims that Saudi Arabia seized one of its takers carrying 1.2 million barrels of crude since April 30, bringing it to the port of Jeddah. Saudi authorities say it rescued an Iranian tanker after it reported engine failure in the Red Sea, charging Iran $200,000 a day for repairs and storage. “It experienced an engine failure and sent a distress call before being saved by Saudi Arabia with 26 crew members on board,” said Saudi officials. Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran pay its $20 million repair and storage bill before the vessel’s released back to Iran. Under weight of U.S., U.N. and EU sanctions, Iran’s watched its Rial currency plunge to 25% of its value, sending Iran’s economy into recession. Iran’s 59-year-old U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said June 3 that he considers the U.S. at “economic war” with Iran, prompting a series of retaliatory moves, including bombing tankers in the Gulf.
Iran’s response to the July 4 interdiction was to announce that it was scuttling the Iranian Nuke Deal, returning to weapons’ grade uranium production. Since Trump pulled out the agreement May 8, 2018, Iran has pressured the U.K., France and Germany to make guarantees for oil sales, despite stringent U.S. sanctions blocking Iran’s oil sales. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhan said July 2 that Iran will enrich as much uranium “as it wants,” essentially vacating the JCPOA. “We firmly demand that Iran halt all activities that do not meet its commitments under the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action],” said French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnes Von der Muehill “We strongly urge Iran to stop and reverse all activities inconsistent with its commitments,” said Maja Kocijancic, spokeswoman for EU Foreign Policy Chief Frederica Mogherini, serving notice that it does not accept Iran’s nuclear activity.
Trump warned Rouhani July 3 that any breach of the JCPOA limits on uranium enrichment could “come back to bite you,” saying that Iran’s nuclear activity was a red line for the U.S. With JCPOA EU-signers all warn Iran about breaching the agreement, Trump has been given the green light to do whatever is needed to stop Iran’s enrichment activities. Iran has run out of options, unable to divide the EU from the U.S., now ramping up its uranium production. No one doubts that Iran’s threats relate directly to producing weapons grade fissile material for the purpose of building an A-bomb. All of Iran’s past denials ring hollow when it comes to its enrichment activities. Refusing to deal with the Trump White House, Iran has pushed the Mideast closer to the brink. Iran’s retaliation against any tanker in the Gulf would automatically trigger a strong U.S. military response.
