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Exposing the true outcome of the Iraq War [March 20, 2003 – Dec. 18, 2011], Iraq has been driven into Iran’s hands. Whatever one thinks of the Iraq War, it’s undeniable that it drove Iran and Iraq into closer allies. It was no accident when radical Shiite militant Muqtada al-Sadr fled Iraq after the first Battle of Fallujah seeking refuge under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, hinting at what would come. Now Iranian President Hassan Rouhani cleverly manipulated his war into Iraq’s good graces, cutting deals with Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, increasing bilateral ties and trade deals. Iran has been reeling since 72-year-old President Donald Trump cancelled May 8, 2018 former President Barack Obama’s July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action AKA the Iranian Nuke Deal. Defying Washington, Iran hit the White House where it hurts, building stronger ties with Iraq.

Trump hoped to alienate Iran for destabilizing influence in North Africa and the Middle East, sponsoring proxy war in Yemen and Syria, doing anything possible to undermine U.S. foreign policy. “Iraq is lucky to be a neighbor with Iran,” said Adul-Mahdi. “A fundamental interest for Iraq,” referring to establishing closer ties with Iran’s Islamic Republic. Khamenei and Rouhani know how to hit the U.S. where it hurts, knowing the blood-and-treasure spent by the U.S. to liberate Iraq from dictator Saddam Hussein. Keeping 5,500 troops in Iraq to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS], the U.S. continues to make sacrifices to keep Iraq safe from terrorism. Cozying up to Iraq presents problems for U.S. foreign policy, knowing the extent of Iranian interference in the Middle East and North Africa. Forging closer ties to Iraq, Iran undermines ties to the U.S.

Creating closer ties with Iran, Iraq sends a loud message to the White House, pushing for the U.S. get out. “The Trump administration is grappling with the extent and limit of U.S. sanctions and power to counter Iran in a country like Iraq with such deep social, economic and cultural ties to Iran,” said an unnamed senior White House adviser. Iran seeks to undermine current U.S. sanctions that have hammered Iran’s Rial currency, now trading at historic low levels. “All the agreements enable an increased Iranian physical presence on Iraqi soil,” said Jessica Leyland, Mideast expert at AKE risk consultancy. Leyland thinks Iran seeks to increase its sphere of influence in Baghdad, diminishing U.S. clout. Iran and Iraq plan to build a rail line from Basra to the Persian Gulf port of Um Qasr to expand Iraan’s proximity to the Gulf. Today’s agreement shows how far things have gone since the Iran-Iraq War [Sept. 22, 1980 – Aug. 20, 1988].

Once bitter enemies battling to loggerheads in the Iran-Iraq War with over 500,000 casualties between both countries, Iraq incurred $657 billion in losses compared to Iran’s $561 billion. Yet today’s trade and cultural deal shows that Iraq wants the U.S. out of Iraq, no matter how much blood-and-treasure spilled to defeat Saddam Huseein’s Baathist [Fascist] state. Rouhani and A-Mahdi pledge to expand trade from its current $12 billion to $20 billion, mostly benefiting Iran. “Hassan Rouhani’s recent visit to Iraq is a historic achievement from Iran . . . the treaties signed, however, harm Iraq’s interests—in a clear demonstration of Iran’s growing influence in Iraq,” said Mohamad Seloom, research fellow at Exeter University’s Arab and Islamic Studies Institute. Iraq finds itself on the short end of the stick, handing Iran $9 billion more in exports to more underdeveloped Iraq.

However you cut it, the eight-year long Iraq war cost the U.S. over $1 trillion with 4,424 U.S. soldiers killed, 31,952 wounded. President George W. Bush thought democratizing Iraq would was result in solid U.S. ally. Instead, Iraq was pushed into Iran’s orbit. Calling Rouhani’s trade deal a “historic achievement,” Iran manages to slap the U.S. in the face, allowing Iran to call the shots. Increasing exports $9 billion gives Iran more clout in the region, trying to circumvent recent U.S. sanctions. Saloom said Iran’s trade deal with Iraq was “almost exclusively in Iran’s interests,” calling the deal harmful to Iraqi and U.S. interests. Creating railway access from Iran to Iraq almost certainly gives Iran more influence over Iraq’s developing economy. Rohuani’s deal-making with Iraq attempts to alienate the U.S., eventually pushing Iraq to evict U.S. forces from its 12 bases.

Since Trump crashed out of Iranian Nuke Deal May 8, 2018, Iran has worked feverishly to compensate for the new sanctions that have hurt the Iranian economy. Rouhani knows that most of Iran’s active oil wells lie inside Iraqi territory, doing everything possible to steal Iraqi oil. “Most of these shared oil wells are located inside Iraq,” Saloom said, citing the al-Fakkah oil well 95% inside Iraqi territory. “Yet Iran under the new treaty claims 50% share of its production,” showing that Iran has only its self-interest at play. “Iran is cashing in its investment in Iraq to consolidate its grip on Iraq and subvert U.S. sanctions,” Saloom noted. Desperate to generate cash wherever possible, Iran looks to undermine Trump’s economic sanctions, getting enough cash to continue its proxy wars in Syria and Yemen. Trump walks a fine line trying to keep Baghdad from letting Iran take over.