Calling 58-year-old Vice President Mike Pence a “political dummy” May 23, North Korea’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Choe Son-hui caused 71-year-old President Donald Trump to abruptly cancel the upcoming June 12 summit with 33-year-old dictator Kim Jong-un. Trump apparently didn’t like the political banter dished out by North Korea’s official KCNA News Agency, after National Security Adviser John Bolton and Pence compared North Korea to Libya. Aug. 22, 2011, Col. Muammar Gaddafi was driven from Triploli, eventually torn limb-for-limb by an angry mob Oct. 26, 2011. North Korea made clear they didn’t like Bolton and Pence’s comparisons to Libya. Trump walked back Bolton and Pence’s remarks May 24, insisting Kim could stay in Pyongyang as long as he disarmed his nukes and ballistic missiles. Meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in today in the DMZ, Kim looks ready to talk.
After calling Pence “ignorant and stupid” for the “Libya Model” remarks, North Korea softened its tone, insisting it wanted to meet with Trump June 12 as scheduled. North Korean had cut off all contacts with the U.S. and South Korean last week, suddenly resuming all contacts, including sending officials to meet with a State Department advance team to prepare for the June 12 meeting. Showing his commitment to the summit, Kim met with Moon to restore confidence that the dictator was serious about making the peace overture to Trump. Before KCNA’s insults against Pence, Trump had pivoted in his demands for nuclear disarmament, agreeing to work out the details of a peace treaty was more important initially than forcing Kim to disarm before the June 12 meeting. Kim has promised Moon in an earlier meeting he was serious about denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.
Trump decision to back off preconditions before the summit offered the best chance that Trump could work his magic with Kim once in a face-to-face meeting. Skeptics have said that Kim’s just working Trump like he did former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. No one thought Kim would consider meeting with Trump to discus a way forward, after both countries traded insults and nuclear threats for the last year. Trump’s tough approach with Kim has brought the 33-year-old dictator to the bargaining table. Against skeptics in the press and Democrat Party, Trump has managed to maneuver a historic summit that could result in a peace treaty between the U.S. and North Korea. Kim wants guarantees for his regime from Trump before he considers dismantling his nuke and ballistic missile arsenal, something he uses as a deterrent.
Meeting with Kim in the DMZ, Moon wants to help set the agenda once Kim and Trump meet June 12 in Singapore, Malaysia. “While Washington and Pyongyang have expressed their hopes for summit through published statements, Moon has to step up as the mediator because the surest way to set the meeting ins stone would be an official confirmation of intent between heads of state,” said Hong Min, senior analyst at Seoul’s Institute for National Unification. While unification is not on the agenda, it’s a dream of many South Koreans who still have family they can’t visit in North Korea. Any peace treaty of opening of bilateral relations with North and South Korea would create insecurity in Kim’s regime. Kim’s acutely aware of the night-and-day contrasts between the two Koreas. Kim’s North Korea is wracked by poverty and famine, unlike the well-fed glaringly prosperous South.
Moon has tried to persuade Kim to offer at the summit verifiable nuclear disarmament in exchange for an end to sanctions and economic development. Trump promised Kim that if he accepts nuclear disarmament, the U.S. will commit itself to North Korea’s economic development like never before. Trump has insisted in the months leading up to the summit on Kim’s unilateral disarmament. But Trump now accepts a more phased approach where North Korea can give up its nukes and ballistic missiles at its own pace, as long as it commits to a peace treaty. Once Trump gets as peace treaty with Pyongyang, the nuclear disarmament issue takes a back after alleviating the threat. Getting a peace treaty first, then working on verifiable steps to nuclear disarmament seems the most logical step. Trimp’s “walk away” strategy got exactly what he wanted.
Trump’s sudden move to cancel the summit reminded North Korea that they stand to get far more from the summit than the United States. While Trump wants nuclear disarmament, he also wants a peace treaty to lessen the chances of war on the Korean Peninsula. Trump’s “walk-away” strategy, something outlined in his 1987 best-selling book, “The Art of the Deal,” showed he’s a crafty negotiator, likely to get what he wants in Singapore. While skeptics still say Kim will never disarm, a peace treaty would make disarmament almost irrelevant Flanked by his intel chief Suh Hoon at Panmunjom Truce Village in the DMA today, Moon laid out the scenarios likely to work when Kim and Trump meet head-to-head June 12 Trump’s promise to Kim of ending sanctions and providing economic assistance has proved to too difficult to refuse, given what he’s faces in North Korea.
A
