When the U.S. defended Syrian Democratic Forces Feb. 7 in Deir al-Zor, Syria, as many as 100 pro-regime fighters were killed, along with al least two Russian mercenaries. While the risks of direct confrontation on the Syrian battlefield with Russia have grown for the U.S.-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF], the stakes could not be higher in the U.S. proxy war with the Turks in the border region controlled by the Kurdish YPG militia. Considered a terrorist group by 63-year-old Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the YPG has been armed heavily by the U.S. to battle the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] in Syria and Iraq. Clashes with pro-Damascus militias in Syria presents problems for the U.S. going forward, no matter how much the Pentagon wants to defend the Kurdish-backed SDF. Turkey switched alliances in Syria, now taking the Russian and Iranian side.
Considered a NATO ally, Turkey has its own agenda going after the U.S.-backed Kurdish YPG militia along the Syrian borders. For over six years, Erdogan backed the Saudi-funded proxy war seeking to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. As Putin joined the fight for al-Assad Sept. 30, 2015, the Turks eventually gave up their part in the Saudi proxy war seeking regime change in Damascus. When it became clear after the fall of Aleppo Dec. 22, 2016, Mosul, Iraq, June 29, 2017 and Raqqa, Syria Nov. 14, 2017, Erdogan decided to jump the Saudi ship. Despite shooting down a SU-25 Russian fighter jet Nov. 24, 2015, Ergogan mended fences with the Kremlin, growing more paranoid after a failed July 15, 2016 coup in Isranbul. Since then, Erdogan has practically declaring martial law, incarcerating his presumed enemies without any due process, blaming the U.S. for backing the coup.
When U.S. officials refused Turkey’s request to extradite exiled 76-year-old Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen for his alleged role in the coup, relations with Turkey soured. Joining Putin’s coterie shows that Turkey continues to be on the wrong side of history, just like when the Ottoman Turks joined the Germans in WW I and backed the Naxis in WW II. Now Erdogan embraces the Kremlin hoping to get Putin’s help in neutralizing the U.S.-backed YPG Kurdish militia. Palestinians have done the same thing, rejecting U.S. mediation in future Mideast peace talks, looking to the Kremlin to get a better deal. Watching Russia take casualties battling pro-U.S. Kurdish forces swings the door open for a wider conflict. U.S. Special Iraq-Syria envoy Brett McGurk finds himself in a no win situation: Backing the Kurds against Turkey but pitting the U.S. against Russia with pro-Syrian forces.
McGurk must help the Pentagon pick its battles in Syria, avoiding confrontation with Russian forces wherever possible. Former Secretary of State Hillary Rosham Clinton once urged setting up no fly zones in Syria, potentially shooting down Russian jets. Hillary’s approach prompted German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeir to warn of WW III in Syria. Russian deaths on the Syrian battlefield raise the specter of wider escalation, especially because the U.S. has no invitation by al-Assad to be in Syria. President Donald Trump told a joint session of Congress Feb. 6 in the State of the Union speech that the U.S would not let ISIS reconstitute in Syria or Iraq. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Feb. 12 the U.S. is trying to control Northeastern Syria. U.S. officials have no reason to be in Syria other than preventing ISIS from reconstituting in remote desert regions.
U.S. backed-YPG militia—and its female counterpart, the YPJ militia—are currently battling Turkey in northwestern Syria. Since seized by ISIS in summer 2014, the oil-rich Raqqa region has been recaptured by the YPG, now handing vital oil revenues back to Damascus. Syria President Bashar al-Assad was well-aware of Turkey funneling cheap Iraqi and Syria oil to Turkey. Al-Assad, while refusing to cede territory to the Kurds, has provided the YPG support in their battle against Turkey. Erdogan paints the YPG with the same broad brush as Kurdistan Workers’ Party :[PKK] who’s battled Turkey for decades for independence. With some 14 million Kurds living in Turkey, Erdogan considers the PKK as a terrorist group. Kurds have sought an independent state since overlooked by the League of Nations in 1922 when they divided up the Ottoman Empire after WW I.
No one really knows how many Russian fighters have been lost to U.S. hands in Syria’s confusing battlefield. Pentagon officials need to coordinate better with Russia in the Syrian battlefield to avoid more Russian casualties. It’s one thing to support the YPG battling the Turks along Syria’s northern border, it’s another to clash with pro-Assad forces in Afrin and the al-Jazeera desert. Unlike Erdogan, al-Assad recognizes Kurdish autonomy in Syria’s oil-rich provinces. Erdogan’s decision to eradicate the YPG along Turkey’s Southwetern border shows tone-deafness to regional politics. Al-Assad has no problem with the Kurds as long as they’re not joining pro-Saudi forces seeking to topple Damascus. Ceding the Kurds the border region with Turkey, al-Assad prevents Turkey from its current cross border attacks. Keeping pro-U.S. Kurdish forces from battling Russian fighters is a top priority.
