Celebrating the 26th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union, Defense Secretary James Mattis told Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko that the U.S. stood with Ukraine. No Western power, including the U.S., did anything when Russian President Vladimir Putin marched the Russian army into Crimea March 1, 2014. When Putin annexed Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkazia Aug 7, 2008, the West also did nothing, despite pleas from U.S.-educated former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. Seeking membership in the European Union and NATO, Ukraine gambled with the Feb. 22, 2014 pro-Western bloodless coup that ousted duly elected, Kremlin-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Putin had little sympathy for Kiev while he watched Yanukovych driven from Kiev while he hosted the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics.
Annexing Crimea March 1, 2014 Putin proved, beyond any doubt, that the West was unwilling to stop the Russian army from illegally seizing sovereign Ukrainian territory. “Have no doubt,” Mattis told Poroshenko. “The United States stands with Ukraine,” insisting “and we will not” accept Russian annexation of Crimea. While Poroshenko welcomed Mattis’ words, there’s little chance the U.S. will confront Russia on the battlefield anytime soon. Insisting Russian should return Crimea to Ukraine, Poroshenko holds the same view as Washington but can get U.S. or NATO military help to resist a Russian advance. “It should come back to Ukraine,” Poroshenko told Mattis referring to Putin seizing Crimea. While Mattis talks tough, there’s little support from any EU country to go out on a limb for Ukraine. Mattis accused Moscow of trying to redraw sovereign borders by military force.
When Poroshenko asked for lethal weapons Sept. 11, 2014, former President Barack Obama refused to oblige. Obama wanted to give upcoming peace talks a chance before throwing gasoline on the fire. War hawks, like Sen. John McCain (R-Az.) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), slammed Obama for not giving Ukraine the weapons needed to deter more Russian encroachment. Stationing thousands of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, Putin was more than ready to seize territory in the pro-Russia Donbass region, led by pro-Russian separatist Alexander Zakharschenko. Giving Ukraine lethal weapons today poses the same risks of Poroshenko opening up a new war in the Peoples Republc of Donetsk. Mattis stopped short of committing the U.S. to giving Poroshenko lethal defensive weapons. Trump finds himself caught between a rock-and-a-hard place supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons.
U.S.-Russian relations hit new post-Cold War lows when the U.S. Congress slapped Moscow July 27 with new economic sanctions. Whatever hope President Donald Trump had resetting U.S.-Russian relations, it all but vanished. Deciding to arm Ukraine would be taken as a provocative threat to the Kremlin. Handing over lethal weapons to Ukraine “would increase the price if Russia made the decision to attack my troops and my territory” said Poroshenko. Poroshenko isn’t thinking about the global consequences to the U.S. of antagonizing Putin. With the U.S. and North Korea trading dangerous threats, the U.S. needs all the help it can get to dial back Kim Jong-un’s nuke and ballistic missile programs. There’s little evidence that even with new lethal weapons, Poroshenko could do anything other than antaignize Putin. Poroshenko faces real questions about government corruption.
Looking to get Putin to comply with the 2015 Minsk Agreement, Poroshenko hoped that Russian troops would leave the border. Putin backing of Zakharchenko’s Peoples Republic of Donetsk speaks volumes about the region’s lack of support for Poroshenko’s Kiev government. Residents of Southeastern Ukraine can’t find any benefit from a disorganized Kiev government, talking about EU or NATO membership but without anything to add to the alliance. “Unfortunately, Russia is not adhering to the letter, much less the spirit of these international commitments,” said Mattis, referring the Minsk I and II agreements. There’s little the U.S. can do overhaul Poroshenko’s Kiev government, rumored so corrupt that only insiders stand to gain. Giving lethal weapons to Kiev could push Putin to annex the Peoples Republic of Donetsk in Southeastern Ukraine.
If Trump listens to McCain and Graham, you’d think it’s absolutely mandatory that Kiev receive the latest lethal defensive weapons. “It is long past time for the United States to provide Ukraine the defensive lethal assistance it needs to deter and defend further Russian aggression,” said McCain pressuring the White House to give Ukraine the new weapons. Poroshenko’s resistance over the last three years has cost some 10,000 civilian lives. Without an overhaul of the Kiev military, giving lethal weapons could lead Russia to seize more territory. There’s no guarantee that more weapons would encourage compliance with the Minsk agreements. McCain thinks giving Kiev lethal weapons would force Russia into compliance on the Minsk agreements. If Poroshenko escalates the conflict, Putin could take more desperate measures, including toppling Poroshenko’s pro-Western Kiev government.
