Faced with the imminent collapse of the Republican replacement for Obamacare, 71-year-old President Donald Trump miscalculated today’s Republican Party, far too conservative to back the nation’s newest entitlement. With the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office [CBO] estimating that some 32 million current Obamacare subscribers would loose their insurance by 2026, the GOP’s Obamacare replacement bill looked poised for defeat. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) looks like the headless horseman, scheming to find anyway possible to cajole at least 50 Republican senators to either back the Senates replacement plan or vote on outright repeal, with replacement coming in some murky future. Trump never anticipated that the bulk of GOP senators and House members have no interest in creating a new entitlement for the nation’s uninsured.
Voting 70 times to repeal Obamacare since former President Barack Obama signed it into law March 23, 2010, the GOP house can’t back any health care bill that’s partially funded by the government. Most Obamacare policies are generously subsidized by the government, while the insurance industry socks-it-to Uncle Sam, raising insurance rates with impunity. Told today that Obamacare is fixable by Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini, Trump doesn’t know what to do, insisting that GOP lawmakers stay in Washington until they produce an acceptable bill. Trump doesn’t get that the majority of conservative House and Senate members have no interest in duplicating what amounts to a watered down version of Obamacare. Moderate GOP Senators like Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Sen. Shelly Moore Capito (R-W.V.), oppose McConnell’s replacement bill.
Exposing the loss of some 32 million Obamcare subscribers by grossly reducing Medicaid funding, the GOP’s bill lacks the backing from moderates in the Republican Party. Conservative like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Ut.) oppose the GOP’s Obamacare replacement because it offers too much Medicaid spending, despite cutting 32 million subscribers from the program. McConnell can’t fathom that he’s driven the GOP off a cliff with only one possible outcome. Thinking he could offer up to the Senate to vote on (a) the latest Senate bill or (b) an outright repeal vote, McConnell’s whistling Dixie, knowing that he’s heading for a defeat. No moderate GOP senator’s going to vote on repeal without having an acceptable replacement that doesn’t cut millions from Medicaid. Trump wants the GOP to negotiate a better replacement bill, something already opposed by conservatives.
Without backing of conservatives, Trump has no chance of delivering on a campaign promise to replace Obamacare. GOP’s Obamacare replacement bill doesn’t offer better coverage at more affordable prices. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tx.) proposed offering a new raft of cheaper, barebones insurance plans. Trump likes to call Obamcare a disaster because of runaway premium prices and lack of accessibility in some states. Bertolini addressed that issue today saying that the GOP working with Democrats could fix Obamcare fairly easily. “I think we have two options here,” said McConnell. “I think we all agree its be to both repeal and replace. But we could have a vote on either,” giving the Senate the choice to either replace or appeal. “Any senator who votes against starting debate is really telling America you’re fine with Obamacare,” said Trump, ignoring conservative opposition to a replacement.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said he agrees with Aetna’s Bertolini that Obamacare can be fixed. “Talk to leadership in terms of what their thinking is there,” said Johnson urging the Senate to go back to the drawing board. GOP Senators need to get beyond the campaign rhetoric or, for that matter, their hate of Obama for railroading Obamacare, and work with Democrats to find an acceptable fix. Obamcare solved a longstanding problem in the health insurance marketplace: Offering individuals, not connected to groups, to buy health insurance without showing proof of insurability. Obamacare ended the distinction between group and individual insurance, where individuals with prior conditions couldn’t get or afford coverage. While Obamacare has its problems, it’s not beyond Washington to fix it, once the GOP’s repeal-and-replacement plans goes up in flames.
Trump needs to get over the personal insult of not delivering a campaign promise of repealing-and-replacing Obamacare. If the GOP simply accepted the principle that no one should loose insurance, it would help fix the current impasse. Unable to agree on a repeal-or-replacement plan, the GOP recognizes when you get beyond the partisan hype, Obamacare has much to offer previously uninsured Americans. Conservatives simply can’t buy into the idea the Obamacare is another entitlement, letting the government help subsidize private insurance. Since the GOP wants no part of a single payer system like Medicare or Medicaid, the next best option is government-subsidized insurance. Creating a plan that tosses 32 million subscribers out of their insurance offers nothing other than misery for millions of Americans. Trump never understood the GOP’s deep opposition to entitlements.
