Getting ready to open up another round of Syrian peace talks in Geneva Feb. 23, 70-year-old U.N. Special envoy Staffan de Mistura looks to tamp down expectations, with most parties holding the same positions when talks opened a year ago. Since evicting Saudi-U.S.-Turkey-backed rebels from East Aleppo Dec. 23, 2016, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in no mood to compromise with terrorists or discuss Saudi Arabia’s High Negotiation Commission demand of regime change in Damascus. When Russian President Vladimir Putin joined the fight Sept. 30, 2015 to keep al-Assad in power, the six-year-old Saudi proxy war to topple al-Assad’s Shiite government began to fizzle. Former President Barack Obama spent six years backing the Saudi proxy war, supplying arms and cash to various rebel groups, killing over 300,000 Syrians, fueling the worst humanitarian crisis since WWII.
Meeting in Geneva tomorrow, so-called opposition groups will no doubt take the same position that al-Assad must leave Damascus. De Mistura has played along for over a year, wasting time, watching peace efforts fail. Russia asked the Syrian government to halt attacks on rebel positions in Idlib province and elsewhere while peace talks move forward. Calling on Syria to “silence their own skies in the area touched by the ceasefire,” the Russians hoped to get opposition groups more receptive to the idea that al-Assad will remain in power. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has stated publicly many times that there can be no peace in Syria until al-Assad leaves Damascus. De Mistura has refused to call out Saudi Arabia’s six-year-old proxy war against Syria, pretending that an indigenous civil war continues to fuel the worst refugee crisis since WWII.
With over 12 million Syrians displaced to neighboring countries and Europe, the Saudi proxy war has stretched the European Union to the breaking point, driving Great Britain out with the June 23, 2016 Brexit vote. U.K’s voters decided to exit the EU primarily because the EU’s liberal immigration policies. Backing the Saudi proxy war, the EU, led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France’s Francois Hollande, has self-destructed, causing the chaos in Syria. Former President Barack Obama routinely blamed al-Assad for the death, destruction and terrorism in Syria. Neither the U.S. nor EU admits backing the Saudi proxy war to topple al-Assad caused Syria’s fierce resistance to preserve its sovereignty. “Am I expecting a breakthrough? No, I’m not expecting a breakthrough,” said De Mistura, pretending that he can keep avoiding confronting Saudi Arabia’s proxy war.
When you consider Saudi Arabia expects al-Assad to surrender Syria’s sovereignty to a future Wahhabi state in Damascus, it’s outrageous that De Mistura won’t confront the Saudis. Hoping for a “serious partner,” Syrian opposition groups think that al-Assad will negotiate away Syrian sovereign territory to terror groups carving up Syrian land. Opposition spokesman Salem al-Muslet expressed hope that al-Assad would finally acquiesce to rebels’ demands. “We have experience with this regime. They’re not here to negotiate about a political transition, but they’re here to buy time and commit more crimes in Syria. There’s no trust in this regime,” said al-Muslet, speaking as if Saudi-U.S.-Turkey backed rebel groups can dictate terms of Syrian sovereignty and territorial integrity. Without De Mistura showing some backbone, Saudi Arabia will continue to sabotage peace talks.
Saudi rebel groups know that al-Assad is backed by Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia. Opposition forces stayed in East Aleppo until the entire city was laid to waste. Fleeing to rebel strongholds in Idlib province, it’s a matter of time before al-Assad focuses firepower on that area. Recent peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, helped by Russia, Iran and the Syrian government, reaffirm Syria’s right to sovereignty and territorial integrity. Al-Assad said recently that Syria will battle to reclaim every inch of sovereign land now held illegally by rebel groups. Whether Saudi Arabia likes it or not, Syria is a sovereign U.N.-recognized member state. U.N. officials can’t give away sovereign land of any country, no matter how much they despise its leader. U.N Resolution 2254 calling for “credible and inclusive” governance in Syria, can’t demand al-Assad cede power.
Unless De Mistura can confront the Saudis, U.S., EU and Turkey seeking to topple Damascus, they’ll be no progress on peace in Syria. Rebel groups seeking to topple a sovereign government can’t call the shots when they’ve already been defeated on the battlefield. “We will be very reluctant to engage in pre-conditions, and in fact I will be refusing them,” opposition spokesman al-Muslet. With hardened positions like that, there’s zero chance of getting a political solution to see al-Assad leave Damascus. When Saudi-U.S.-Turkey-backed opposition groups meet in Geneva, De Mistura must call them out for unrealistic demands. Hosting peace talks only to grandstand makes no sense. Unless Saudi-U.S.-Turkey opposition groups accept that proxy war is not the answer, a fragile ceasefire will be over quickly, renewing the death, destruction and terrorism in Syria.
