Deploying 3,500 U.S. troops, army personnel carriers and tanks to the western Poland town of Zagan isn’t sitting well with Russian President Vladimir Putin, already antagonized by President Barack Obama’s Dec. 30, 2016 decision to expel 35 Russian diplomats. Obama reacted harshly after briefed by the CIA, FBI and NSA about alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election. CIA Director John Brennen and FBI Director James Comey concluded that Russia tried to favor President-elect Donald Trump, prompting Obama to expel diplomats and apply more sanctions. Brennen and Comey know that Democratic nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million, invalidating their theory that Putin influenced the election. If Putin influenced anyone, he helped Hillary win a significant popular vote majority.
Any logical analysis of the 2016 election can’t possibly conclude that Russia helped Trump, other than possibly hacking and exposing shenanigans inside the Hillary campaign and Democratic National Committee. As far at the election results go, its inconceivable to attribute Trump’s Electoral College victory to Putin, especially his unexpected wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Already antagonizing Russia with expulsions and sanctions, Obama’s troop deployment to Poland has pushed U.S.-Russian relations to the breaking point. Speaking to Russian Amb. Sergey Kislyak by phone Dec. 30, Trump’s National Security Advisor Michael Flynn hoped to defuse a volatile situation. Now that Obama’s deployed U.S. firepower to Poland, the situation turned from urgent-to-critical. Contacts between the President-elect and Russia are needed to defuse a ticking time bomb.
Polish officials, fearing since the1991 end to the Soviet Union a Russian takeover, welcomed U.S. troops to Poland. “We have waited for you for a very long time, said Polish Defense Minister Antoni Macierwicz. “We waited for decades, sometimes feeling we had been left alone, sometimes almost losing hope, sometimes feeling that were the only one who protected civilization from oppression that came from the east,” referring to Russian aggression. Polish President Andrzej Duda asked Obama for U.S. troops after Putin seized Crimea March 1, 2014. Since then, Poland and the Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have feared a Russian invasion. “This is an important day for Poland, for Europe, for our common defense,” said Prime Minister Beata Szydio. Holding celebrations in downtown Warsaw, Polish officials hope that the U.S. can deter any Russian advance.
Polish and Baltic State authorities have no intel to suggest Russia has its aim on territories once claimed the U.S.S.R. Putin’s tried to explain his reasoning in seizing Crimea as a special circumstance, since it held a large Russian speaking population but, more importantly, it housed Russia’s southern fleet at Sevastapol. When the CIA-backed coup led by former heavyweight champion Vitali Klitshko took place Feb. 22, 2014 with Putin hosting the Sochi Winter Games, it looked opportunistic. Putin reacted harshly one week after the Games ended, seizing Crimea. Putin argued that the so-called pro-Western government in Kiev no longer supported the Kremlin’s military interest in Crimea. How and why Poland or the Baltics see any parallel to their area is anyone’s guess. Putin’s reassured Eastern European countries that Russia has no aim on any other territory.
Euphoria over U.S. troops in Poland could turn to anxiety if Putin objects strongly to the deployment. Putin already deployed Iskander nuclear-ready missiles to Kalingrad in response to U.S. announcing May 12, 2-16 deployment of Aegis missile defense systems in Poland and Romania. With U.S.-Russian relations at Cold War lows, yesterday’s troop deployment is bound to spark a strong Kremlin response. Waiting to see what happens when Trump takes over Jan. 20, the Kremlin will keep its powder dry before deciding how to respond after the inauguration. When you consider the deteriorated state of U.S.-Russian relations, it threatens Poland and the Baltics far more than Putin acting unilaterally. Putting U.S.-Russian relations back on the right track, Trump hopes to deescalate tensions in a variety of hotspots around the globe, including the South China Sea and North Korea.
Resetting U.S.-Russian relations would go along way to deescalate tensions from Russia’s Crimean invasion and threats in Donbass region of Southeastern Ukraine. With Sen. John McCain (R-Az.) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) visiting the Baltics and Ukraine last week, tensions are already at a high level. McCain and Graham want only more sanctions against Moscow, not, as Trump promises, a reset with U.S.-Russian relations. If Obama hadn’t let U.S.-Russian relations deteriorate, U.S. troop deployments to Eastern Europe wouldn’t be a big deal. With little trust between Washington and Moscow, it’s no wonder tensions are at such a high level. Trump hinted he’s considering ending Russian sanctions, something already in the works in the European Union. Giving a little with Putin would go a long way in deescalating tensions and restoring more favorable relations with the Kremlin.
