Treading on thin ice, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeir, French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and Polish Foreign Minster Witold Wasczcykowski met in Weimer today, urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to back off his support of pro-Russian separatists in Southeastern Ukraine. Renewed fighting in the Donbass region prompted the trio into action, urging international efforts to implement the Feb. 11, 2015 Minsk II Protocol, asking the Russian Federation to end support pro-Russian separatists. Complaining about the broken ceasefire, the EU foreign ministers called for renewed efforts to pressure Moscow into fully implementing the Minsk II agreement. “We have to work for a de-escalation of the situation,” Steinmeir told reporters, promoting the Weimer Triangle trilateral group, pressing for diplomacy, showing the EU still has peacemaking clout.
Once the Brits rejected the EU with its Brexit vote June 23, the Brussels-based EU worried about contagion, other EU countries that see the same logic as the U.K. in bailing out. “The Weimer Triangle can play an important role . . . It is a format where we can discuss progress or the lack of progress on issues such as the Normandy format aimed at ending the Ukraine conflict,” Steimeir said. Steinmeir knows there are two sides to every story. Certainly two sides to the Feb. 22, 2014 pro-Western, CIA-backed coup toppled the duly elected government of Kremlin-backed Viktor Yanukovich. Putin watched from the Sochi Olympics Yanukovich driven from Kiev. Ony week later, Putin invaded Crimea March 1, 2014, serving notice that there are consequences to a pro-Western coup in Russia’s backyard. Steinmeir hopes to pressure Putin into calling off the dogs in Southeastern Ukraine.
With Western backing, former heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko couldn’t see the repercussions of toppling Yanukovich. Kitschko didn’t consider that Putin had a big following in Crimea and the heavily industrialized Donabass region, once joined at the hip with the Soviet Union until its collapsed Dec. 24, 1991. Outplaying the West’s geopolitics, Putin decided to protect his military interests in Crimea, but, more importantly, back pro-Russian communities not interested in following Klitsckko or pro-Western former Ukrainian Prime Minster Arenly Yatsenyuk. Steinmeir, Ayrault and Wasczykowski igore the consequences of Klitschko’s coup. When billionaire chocolate baron Petro Poroshenko took over Ukraine June 7, 2014, he wasn’t recognized as legitmate by the Kremlin. Poroshenko talks tough against Putin and the Kremlin without any real support from the West.
No matter how much Poroshenko whined about Putin’s backing of pros-Russian separatists in the Donbass region, he didn’t realize his mandate didn’t go much beyond Kiev. Poroshenko’s continued threats against Moscow only make matters worse. Poroshenko told reporters last week that he wouldn’t rule out martial law and new military actions in Donbass. Poroshenko controls what’s left of Ukraine’s beleaguered military, in no position of fight pro-Russian separatists or the Kremlin. Poroshenko wants the U.S. and EU to pressure Putin into backing down. Or, if that doesn’t work, threaten to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty against a superior Russian military. Porosenko’s sadly mistaken if he thinks the Weimer Triangel can pressure Putin into returning Crimea and retreating from Donbass. No Western country wants to fight Ukraine’s battles on the old Domino Theory.
To resolve the Ukraine situation, Steimmeir wants to convene the Normandy group, comprised of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany, hoping to pressure Putin into following the Minsk II protocol. Whether admitted to or not by Poroshenko, the Minsk II Protocol calls for ceding autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk, both key battlegrounds in the Donbass region. Minsk II offers to hold plebiscites in the region to allow locals to decide whether or not to stay with Kiev, seek more autonomy or down the road vote to join Russia like Crimea. Instead of ripping Putin in Weimer, the Weimer Triangle should sit down with Poroshenko and explain the limits of his mandate in pro-Russian parts of Ukraine. If Poroshenko really wants peace in the region, he needs to reassess the limits of his mandate following the Feb. 22, 2014 pro-Western coup that ejected a democratically elected president.
When the Weimer Triangle or Normandy group meet to discuss Ukraine, it’s time look at the real limits of Poroshenko’s mandate. Whatever sovereignty existed before the coup, it’s changed forever Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. More lectures to Putin about democracy doesn’t change the fact that a pro-Western coup toppled the duly elected Kremlin-backed government of Viktor Yanukovich. More threats from Poroshenko only make a bad situation worse. If the U.S. or EU wants to be constructive, they must stretch themselves to understand the consequences of the Feb. 22, 2014 that ousted Yanukovich. While it’s easy to blame Putin, it does no good for Ukraine, finding some way of ending the bloodshed and rebuilding the decimated Ukrainian economy. Showing real leadership requites talk on all issues, not just the ones Poroshenko wants to put on the table.
