Select Page

Bending to overwhelming conservative pressure before the July 18 Republican National Convention, 70-year-old GOP presumptive nominee real estate tycoon Donald Trump put an end to the Stop Trump movement picking 57-year-old religious conservative Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. Picking between New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), Trump opted, as did Sen. John McCain in 2008 and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012, to add conservatives to the ticket. Whether or not that works for Trump in 2016 is anyone’s guess. With 73-year-old Gingrich carrying old baggage and with Christy facing testifying in the Bridgegate scandal this Fall, Trump opted for “squeaky clean,” though Pence’s religious conservatism makes him unpopular with the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender and Questioning [LBGTQ} community.

While it’s not official until 11:00 am EST in New York tomorrow, the New York Times, Washington Post, Indianapolis Star and several other respected newspapers cite unnamed but credible sources in the Trump campaign confirming Pence as Trump’s VP pick. Pence earned notoriety signing March 26, 2015 the Religious Freedom Restoration Act [RFRA], essentially giving Indiana citizens the right to discriminate against LGBTQ community. National Basketball Association [NBA] Commissioner Adam Silver has been under heavy pressure to cancel the 2017 All Star Game scheduled in Indianapolis, due to the RFRA. Trump found himself caught between and rock-and-a-hard place picking the right VP. Pence, a six-term Congressman from Indiana’s 2nd and 6th District [2000 to 2012], has foreign policy experience, backing former President George W. Bush’s Iraq’s War.

Despite obvious differences with Trump on foreign policy, especially the Iraq War, Pence finds himself aligned closely with the foreign policy of Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain (R-Az.). Looking for approval with the GOP establishment, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) praised Trump’s pick, calling Pence a close personal friend. With the Stop Trump movement still making noise, including Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Az.), picking Pence reassures the base that Trump’s joined a respected movement conservative. When competing voices inside the Trump campaign, including Chairman Paul Manafort, Trump’s daughter Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner, not to mention sons Donald and Eric, found objections with all three picks, ultimately Manafort prevailed. Manafort wanted, more than anything, to bury the hatchet before Cleveland.

With the race tightening nationally and with battle grounds states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, 68-year-old Democratic presumptive nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will counter quickly with her pick. Picking Pence forces Hillary to counter with the most conservative Democratic available, 58-year-old Sen. Tim Kaine.(D-Va.). Kaine, like Pence, comes with an impressive resume, serving as former Richmond mayor, Virginia governor and Democratic Party Chairman. Hillary watched her aggregate national polling against Trump shrink to 3.1% from 4.7% only two days before. Hillary’s polls started to slide after FBI Director James Comey announced July 5 she would not face charges for sending and receiving classified emails on her private server while secretary of state [Jan. 21, 2009 to Feb. 13, 2013]. Comey slapped Hillary for mishandling classified material.

Picking Pence surprised many GOP insiders thinking that either Christie or Gingrich had a lock on VP. Manafort, as Trump’s senior advisor, pushed hard for Pence, seeking to mend fences with the GOP. After a bruising primary campaign, Trump had alienated the lion’s share of conservative Republicans, with 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney making bold public statements denouncing Trump. With insults flying back-and-forth with Trump’s former rivals, Manafort thought mending fences was the top priority heading into Cleveland. How some 14 million Trump voters take the Pence pick is anyone’s guess. Judging by the growing GOP acrimony against Hillary, Manafort hopes the Never Trump movement morphs into the GOP’s Never Hillary call. Because of Pence’s support of Indiana’s RFRA, he’s going to face intense opposition from the LGTBQ community.

Looking at the short-term picture, picking Pence should help Trump mend fences heading into Cleveland. Manafort hopes Pence’s strong ties to religious conservatives gets that group to back Trump in November. Whether Trump loses independents and crossover Democrats by picking a religious conservative isn’t yet known. With Gingrich carrying old baggage and Christie facing more questions about Bridgegate, Manafort made the right decision heading into the RNC convention. Nailing down a first ballot Trump victory to become the GOP’s nominee, Manafort opted to placate the base rather than roll the dice in Cleveland. Manafort hopes that Pence’s low-key demeanor rubs off on Trump, giving the flamboyant billionaire new credibility with mainstream conservative voters. Manafort hopes that opting for “squeaky clean” over more flamboyance pays off.