Speculation over GOP presumptive nominee real estate mogul Donald Trump’s veepstakes hit a fever’s pitch today, with three vetted finalists left but only one that realistically fits the bill. Stuck in Indianapolis because of his Boeing 757 mechanical problems, Trump interviewed candidates for his final VP pick. Spending time with Indiana Gov. Mike Spence and his family, Trump’s brain-trust, including his wife Melania, daughter Ivanka, son-in-law Jared Kushner, sons Eric and Donald, all put in their two cents on the final selection. Meeting with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and with Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Al.), but only in an advisory role, Trump threw off the press only 48-hours from his expected Friday, July 15 announcement. Hyping the pick succeeded in shifting the media away from a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Hillary up by 13% nationally.
Democratic presumptive nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton looks to pick her VP second, trying to match up best with Trump’s VP. When you consider how 2016 GOP primary voters gave Trump an unprecedented win with 14 million votes, it’s inconceivable that the GOP can go with anyone other than Trump, despite the best efforts of the Stop Trump movement. Trump’s VP decision weighs heavily in the race because voters demand something different in 2016: A less partisan, more pragmatic ticket. If Trump goes conservative, like Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008 or former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012, he’ll lose hoards of independent voters flocking to his campaign. Picking either Newt or Pence would deflate a maverick campaign built on rejecting the status quo. If nothing else, Hillary represents the entrenched Washington establishment.
Hillary can’t change her stripes no matter who she picks for VP. Whatever voters think of her email scandal, she’s the mainstream candidate, promising another four years of the President Barack Obama’s legacy. When you consider Trump’s final cut including, Pence, Gingrich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, there’s really no choice: It’s Chrstie hands down. Trump’s been toying with the public pretending he’s agonizing over his final pick. When you really look at what’s important, Trump values loyalty above all else. Christie was the first mainstream GOP figure and 2016 candidate to endorse Trump Feb. 26, appearing with Trump at numerous campaign stops. Trump’s talked about his “gut” instincts prevailing in his VP pick. Trump watched firsthand Christie dismantle Feb. 6 GOP favorite Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.) on the eve of the Feb. 9 New Hampshire primary.
Watching Rubio crack under Chrstie’s withering cross-examination made a strong believer out of Trump. With Trump running behind Hillary 4.3% aggregate polling, he can’t afford to pick the wrong person for VP. All the prevailing wisdom has been wrong in 2016. Pushing Trump to pick a conservative or someone like Gingrich with Capitol Hill experience, sends the exact the wrong message. GOP and independents voters in 2016 want something different, not a throwback to the past. McCain and Romney found out what happens when you follow prevailing wisdom. McCain thought he needed a flamboyant conservative in 2008, when, in fact, he needed another like-minded moderate. Romney also capitulated to prevailing wisdom when he picked a young conservative in 2008 named Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). McCain and Romney sunk right to the bottom after their VP picks.
Hinting at who he’d pick, Trump shifted from seeking someone with legislative experience to needing a “fighter,” now that he’s running behind. Speaking to a rally with Pence in Indiana, Trump speculated about his VP pick. “ I don’t know if he’s going to be your governor or vice president,” Trump told the crowd, unwilling to commit to his final decision. Pence rehearsed for the role as attack dog, strongly backing Trump but lacking Christie’s charisma and populist appeal. Pence’s evangelical credentials don’t match up well with Trump’s New York “values,” as former GOP candidate Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tx.) liked to say. Whether liked or not by the GOP establishment, Trump appeals to independents not affiliated with either party. If Trump picks a conservative like Pence or Gingrich, he’d signal he’s pivoting toward the right in the general election, something turning off independents.
Whether admitted to or not before the Friday announcement, Trump’s down to only one viable VP candidate. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Of all Christie’s legal problems with Bridgegate, they pale in comparison to his upside as the most forceful attack dog against Hillary. Watching what Christie did to Rubio left an indelible mark on Trump. Trump’s undeniable business success comes down to instincts, not number crunching. If he listened to his advisors, he wouldn’t be an American business icon. Listening to Hillary attack Trump’s business success exposes her to more questions about her trustworthiness and integrity. However Democrats attack Trump, it’s not because of his indisputable business success. Trump knows that Hillary’s no pushover. To win in November, he’ll need every weapon in his arsenal, especially a youthful, energetic articulate VP like Christie.
