Finishing second in the Iowa Caucuses with 44%, a gracious 69-year-old real estate mogul Donald Trump parked his ego at the door and congratulated Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for his first place finish with 48%. Trump learned a valuable but useless lesson about Iowa’s eccentric voting system AKA the Caucuses, that the so-called “ground game” makes-or-breaks candidates. Cruz’s success stemmed from unending pandering to Iowa’s evangelical voters, spending more time and going to more precincts than any other GOP candidate. Cruz won a pyrrhic victory, pounding his chest before a raucous crowd in Des Moines before rushing off to New Hampshire. If Cruz gets the same kind of momentum as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008 or former Pennsylvania Gov. Rick Santorum in 2012 he’s in for rude awakening in New Hampshire.
Showing Iowa’s loyalty to past Caucus winners, voters gave Huckabee a measly 2% with Santorum fairing worse with one percent. Showing an unexpected late surge Iowa’s Caucuses, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.) landed 23% of the vote, only little more that two thousand votes behind Trump. Iowa’s pre-Caucus polls are notoriously non-predictive, with Trump entering yesterday’s voting with a 5% lead, losing by 4%. What made all the difference was the Cruz campaign packing the Caucus sites with as many folks as possible. Trump’s second place performance prompted the mainstream media to write Trump off in advance of the New Hampshire primary. Gleefully fixating on Trump’s second place in Iowa, the media forgot that Trump leads all GOP candidates in New Hampshire by 22%. What happens in Iowa doesn’t predict success in other less eccentric primaries.
Cruz’s Iowa euphoria could evaporate quickly when he faces non-religious, independently-minded New Hampshire voters that reject marrying religion with politics. When you consider Trump’s a secular candidate, with enormous wealth and big city values, it’s a remarkable feat he landed 24%. Calling it the beginning of the end for Trump shows the media’s shameless bias against his insurgent campaign. If past elections are any guide, Huckabee’s 2008 or Santorum’s 2012 wins in Iowa didn’t translate to New Hampshire. Giving Cruz’s overwhelming evangelical pitch, it’s going to turn off a lot of voters in more secular states. Some pundits questioned whether Trump’s boycott of the Jan. 28 Fox News debate hurt him on Election Day. With the deck stacked against non-evangelicals, it’s inconceivable that Trump could still pull off 24% of the vote.
Watching Huckabee and Satorum throw in the towel, the pressure increases a bit for Trump to show he can win his first primary. Neither Huckabee nor Santorum have enough supporters in New Hampshire to make any difference. Holding onto his 22% margin isn’t necessary for Trump to pull off victory. Cruz and Rubio face even greater pressure for a good showing, especially Cruz who doesn’t want to head into South Carolina in two weeks as a one-trick wonder. ABC’s Thursday night debate pits Cruz, once again, against Rubio, whose impressive third place Iowa finish adds more drama. Cruz won’t be able to recruit 12,000 volunteers and 15,000 precinct captains to gain strategic advantage like in Iowa. Only the ABC debate and retail politicking can help Cruz overcome a whooping 22% deficit. Without targeting specific undecided voters in New Hampshire, Cruz faces an uphill battle.
Competing for New Hampshire’s voters are moderate GOP governors like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, all with abysmal performances in Iowa under three percent. Bush has spent up to $20 million in New Hampshire ads in a last ditch attempt to salvage his campaign. All indications show that Bush, Christie and Kasich aren’t cracking through in New Hampshire, leaving it a three-way GOP race between Cruz, Trump and Rubio. Because Trump holds such a commanding lead, Cruz and Rubio will slug it out in the Feb. 4 debate all the way to next Tuesday. If Trump can escape any major gaffes between now and Election Day, he should win New Hampshire. Trump’s stump speeches resonate with New Hampshire voters, tired of Washington’s partisan gridlock, looking for a change in 2016.
Looking at the big picture in Iowa, Trump’s second place is even more remarkable that Rubio’s last minute surge that landed him third place. Trump finds himself in a good place as front-runner, continuing what he’s been doing and watching Cruz and Rubio duke it out. Cruz’s ground game in Iowa won’t translate to New Hampshire, where the nation’s most independent voters don’t buy the evangelical pitch. Cruz and Rubio won’t find too much interest in God or Jesus politics that play out in Iowa. Blaming Trump for a second place finish in Iowa doesn’t account for how his “New York” values got him 24% of the vote. Nipping at Cruz’s heels, Trump should stay clear of the Cruz-Rubio crossfire, holding as many rallies as possible between now and next Tuesday. Trump’s second place showed New Hampshire voters more than Cruz’s expected evangelical win.
