Walking on the razor’s edge, 70-year-old Secretary of State John Kerry tried to placate Saudi Arabia, knowing the U.S. is ending economic sanctions against Iran, handing the Persian Nation billions in cash. Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with Iran Jan. 3 after beheading popular Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr Jan. 2. Saudi officials complained about the attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran, watching local police hesitant to stop protesters from damaging the embassy. Caught between a rock-and-a-hard place, Kerry flip-flopped Dec. 15, 2015 in Moscow, agreeing with Russian President Vladimir Putin to change the Saudi-backed U.S. policy of removing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. U.S. officials had ripped Moscow for going after Saudi-funded Syrian opposition groups, including Saudi’s favorite, Zahran Alloush’s Jaish al-Islam, killed Dec. 25 in a Russian air strike.
Meeting with 53-year-old Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir in London today, Kerry promised Saudi Arabia more security now that Iranian sanctions are lifting, maybe by Friday, Jan. 15. Al-Jubeir complained to Kerry about Iran’s Shiite interference in the politics of Sunni Gulf States, now aligned against Tehran. Complicating the picture was the Jan. 12 capture of 10 U.S. sailors by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards for straying into Iranian sovereign waters. When Kerry called his new good friend Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif—with whom he spent two years hammering out the July 14, 2015 P5+1 Iranian nuke deal—to intervene, the sailors were released in 24 hours. While taking heat from Capitol Hill Republicans, rapid resolution of the short-lived hostage crisis proved that things have changed with Iran, something disturbing Saudi Arabia.
Playing a new balancing act between Tehran and Riyadh, the U.S. hasn’t had to do much since 1979 when the Iranian Revolution ended U.S. diplomatic relations. While diplomatic relations haven’t been restored with Tehran officially, the July 14 Geneva Nuke deal opens the door for normalization. Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shows no intent yet of reestablishing diplomatic ties. Regardless of how much Khamenei wants sanctions ended, he wouldn’t have released the U.S. sailors without better U.S. rapport. U.S.-educated Al-Jubeir knows the White House switched gears on toppling Syria’s al-Assad. Since the so-called Arab Spring when the Syrian “civil war” started March 11, 2011, the Syrian War has cost some 250,000 deaths, displacing 2 million more to neighboring countries and Europe. Before Russia’s Sept. 30 air strikes in Syria, the White House hasn’t questioned Saudi policy.
Saudi officials have less worry today about what happens in Tehran than the U.S. changing directions in Syria. With 68-year-old U.N. peace envoy Staffan d Mistura due to start a Geneva peace conference on Syria Jan. 25, al-Jubeir faces the very real possibility that Saudi’s proxy war against al-Assad has failed. Painted by Riyadh as a “civil war,” Riyadh has never owned its proxy war in Syria. Putin finally got through to Obama and Kerry Dec. 15 in Moscow that toppling al-Assad would repeat the same mistakes in Iraq and Libya, creating the dreaded power vacuum, opening up the floodgates of terrorism and giving rise to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS]. U.S. understands “the challenges that The Kingdom and other countries feel in the region about interference in their countries,” Kerry told Jubeir, walking a fine line between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
After backing the Saudi proxy war against Syria for five years, the White House has finally come to its senses that toppling al-Assad would help no one. Saudi’s insecurity in the region stems from crashing oil prices and the failure of OPEC, once a stabilizing force in maintaining oil prices. With Iran poised to start flooding the market with cheap oil, the Saudis have more concerns that Shiite Tehran will once again dominate the region economically. Breaking off diplomatic relations with Tehran Jan. 3, King Salman hopes to win concessions on oil production from Tehran, worried that the global slide in oil prices could hurt The Kingdom. Beheading a popular Shiite cleric showed King Salman’s tone deafness to Sunni-Shiite relations. Whatever happened to the Saudi embassy in Tehran was caused by King Salman’s decision to behead Imam Nimr al-Nimr.
Unable to tell the Saudis “no” on a host of issues, the White House finally got its Syria policy right, joining Moscow and Tehran to oppose toppling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. When Syrian officials and opposition groups meet in Geneva Jan. 25, de Mistura will have his work cut out for him, getting the Saudis to back down on their policy of removing al-Assad. Moscow has agreed in principle to new leadership in Damascus but only determined by a Syrian vote. Wedged between Tehran and Riyadh, the White also has to respect the view of Russia that sees al-Assad staying in power, unless the Syrian people say otherwise. White House officials are still struggling to deal with Ukraine where Putin responded to a pro-Western coup Feb. 22, 2014, toppling Kiev’s Russian-backed elected government. Taking Saudis’ side now against Tehran and Moscow makes no sense.
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