Faced with political fallout for the 2016 presidential election, President Barack Obama has made an about-face when it comes to his Syria policy. Only last week, before the Nov. 13 Paris massacre by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] causing 129 deaths and hundreds of injuries, Obama insisted that Syria’s Bashar al-Assad must go. For months, Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have insisted on regime change in Damascus as a necessary condition to end the Syrian civil war, claiming some 250,000 lives, driving 2 million refugees to asylum in Europe. Obama and Kerry could not explain why the U.S. joined ISIS and al-Qaeda’s al-Nusra Front in seeking to topple al-Assad’s Shiite government. Only after Russian President Vladimir Putin got serious protecting al-Assad Oct. 30, bombing Saudi-backed insurgents seeking regime change, did the White House flip-flop.
Putin’s commitment to al-Assad is not because there’s any great love of the Syrian dictator: It’s because toppling al-Assad would toss the region into more chaos like it did in Iraq, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. Obama showed tone-deafness to Putin’s argument that repeating the mistakes of Iraq and Libya would end badly in Syria. With polls showing, in the wake of the Paris attacks, that national security will be a pivotal part of the 2016 campaign, Obama could no longer deny his failed Syria policy. Over the weekend, Obama and Putin were seen in animated discussions on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Antalya, Turkey. Both leaders need urgent PR rehab, letting U.S.-Russian relations deteriorate to post-Cold War lows. Putin’s March 1, 2014 invasion of Crimea forced the Western alliance to take a tough stance, ostracizing Russia from the G8 and imposing costly economic sanctions.
Both Obama and Putin need urgent PR help, requiring the two to get on the same page on Syria. “If we get a better understanding with Russia about the process for bringing and end to the Syrian civil war,” said Obama, “that obviously opens up more opportunities for coordination with respect to ISIL,” said Obama, hinting a joint efforts to confront ISIS. Until till now, the al-Assad issue prevented the White House from any cooperation with Moscow on resolving the Syrian civil war. Switching gears, Obama sees the potential damage to the Democratic Party as the GOP critiques intensify during an election year. Staying on the same side of ISIS and al-Qaeda was an untenable White House policy. Putin’s Oct. 30 decision to start bombing ISIS and other Saudi-backed rebel groups forced the White House to pivot, now discussing military cooperation with Putin to battle ISIS.
Putin’s responded to French President Francois Hollande’s pleas for military help in battling ISIS. Acknowledging Nov. 17 that a bomb brought down Metroject KGL 8258, Putin responded with avengeance, practically carpet bombing ISIS’s de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa. Putin’s decision to coordinate military operations with France forced Obama to take a second look at his Syrian policy. Working with Moscow in Vienna trying to conclude a ceasefire in Syria, Obama admitted that Putin has played a cooperative role to resolve the Syrian civil war. Obama acknowledged that Putin played a constructive role backing the July 22 U.N.’s P5+1 [U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and German] nuke-deal with Iran. Joining forces with the West to defeat ISIS give Putin a chance to redeem himself after seizing Crimea.
French President Francois Hollande seeks a “grand coalition” to defeat ISIS on the battlefield, something unheard-of in recent years. Unlike the U.S. and Russia that have active foreign policies countering each other’s moves on the global stage, France sticks to its own internal issues. Watching the carnage on Paris streets, Hollande finally got it’s Sept. 11-type wake up call, realizing things could get worse. In the run up to Sept. 11, former President Bill Clinton let the terrorist threats from al-Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden get out of hand. Watching U.S. embassies blown up in 1998, Clinton responded with a throwaway Cruise missile attack on Bin Laden’s training camps outside Kabul. When the U.S.S. Cole was hit on Clinton’s watch in 2000 it clearly anticipated what would follow with Sept. 11. Former President Bush got one thing right after Sept. 11: Taking the battle to the enemy.
Since taking office Jan. 20, 2009, Obama lost sight of his No. 1 obligation to fight the war on terror to defend the U.S. homeland. Watching the carnage in Paris was a slap-in-the-face for the White House, realizing they’ve let ISIS run wild in Syria, now threatening U.S. national security. Agreeing to bomb ISIS in 2014 was not enough to stop ISIS from plotting attacks on Western targets, most recently Paris. Hollande’s call for a “grand coalition,” including Western allies and Russia, gives Obama a chance to redeem a feckless counter-terrorism strategy. While Putin defended al-Assad, he couldn’t figure out how the White House could join ISIS and al-Qaeda in trying to topple Damasus. If Barack doesn’t overhaul his Syria policy, he’s going to make it difficult for a Democrat to get back to the White House in 2016. Joining Putin and the “grand coalition” is the right move.
